The year-long rise in gold prices seems likely to continue in the coming months, regardless of what happens in Tuesday’s elections.

That’s the assessment of analysts at Goldman Sachs and ING. gold It will continue its rise in the short and medium term and rise to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Gold futures (GC1!) It was hovering near $2,750 in recent trading on Tuesday.

Expanding central bank Buying, falling interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions have created a “perfect storm for gold,” ING said in a recent research note.

“These drivers will likely continue regardless of who wins the presidential election,” ING said.

Crossroads of Tailwinds

The price of gold has risen almost 33 percent this year, reaching all-time highs. It peaked at $2,805 last week Troy per ounce. a long time safe harbor existenceThe metal benefited from investors’ uncertainty about the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and the US election.

The expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates, and it did so September 18It also contributed to the rise of gold. Falling interest rates offer less asset competition for gold, resulting in no annual income for investors. Investors’ expectation Fed will cut interest rates again on Thursday.

Central banks seeking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves increased the value of gold. ING noted that central bank purchases last year reached the second highest level in history, and the World Gold Council Survey conducted at the beginning of this year revealed that 29 percent of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves again this year.

These factors, as well as global policymakers’ concerns about the US’s $35 trillion debt, could push gold prices to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, Goldman Sachs said.

Long-Term Policy Implications

Goldman also predicts investment Demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) It will rise as interest rates fall. These funds will have to purchase physical gold to meet growing demand, creating competition for central banks to try to increase their gold holdings.

However, looking at the long term, ING stated that former President Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s elections could eventually put pressure on gold prices. Trump’s proposed tariffs ING said the strict immigration policy is “inherently inflationary” and could lead to tighter monetary policy by the Fed. But the resulting trade friction “may increase gold’s safe-haven appeal.”

ING said this friction probably wouldn’t happen if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election. However, the Fed may continue its looser monetary policy with relatively lower inflationary policy recommendations, which may provide support to gold prices.