Election Day finally at our doorAnd Kamala Harris suddenly looks stronger than ever.

A weekend full of campaigns in swing states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina And Georgia It was dwarfed by the political equivalent of a bomb going off on Saturday. J. Ann Selzer, Iowa voting guru, Made a shocking impact at the end of the game: Des Moines RegistrationKamala Harris ahead by three points, according to poll Donald Trump in the state.

Is there suddenly Is a new state in effect? Most likely – despite clamoring from the Trump camp on Saturday evening and into Sunday that this was an “outlier”, that’s just because other polls are being extremely cautious. generously Sample Republican-leaning constituencies during the campaign season. Selzer sticks to his guns.

For Harris to lose the state, the poll would have to be much further away than in the last two election cycles, and a victory there would completely cut off Trump’s path to victory. Even with a four percentage point deviation, it’s hard to say that their findings would do anything other than ring the loudest alarm bells at Mar-a-Lago.

Consider the findings with women: Harris leads Trump by a striking 2-to-1 margin among women 65 and older. In a campaign season dominated by ads about the deadly consequences of abortion bans that force hospitals in red states to delay life-saving treatments for pregnant women, there’s only one real way to get it: Roe reckoning.

This is true. If the Selzer poll turns out to be correct to some extent tomorrow, we are faced with a consequence. defining decades Political reaction to overturning of Conservative Supreme Court decision Roe v. Wade. What consequences will this have for the presidential race? What about the Senate race in MontanaWhere GOP candidate Tim Sheehy is called women Did you say that only young women who were “brainwashed” and uncaring about abortion rights wanted to speak out? What will happen in Texas, where Ted Cruz, the state’s Cancun-visiting senator and wannabe podcaster, faces potentially the toughest election night fight of his political career? Or Nebraska, where an incumbent Republican senator is suddenly in danger of being unseated by an independent who says he won’t caucus with either party?

It’s been looking like this for days cracks appeared in the coalition that Trump founded in 2016 and is trying to reassemble this year. Last minute move His three rallies, which he won twice in the state of North Carolina, suggested to many that his insiders were showing red flags there. His campaign no longer appears to be making serious progress Wisconsinin its place Focusing attention on Pennsylvania. Other polls show Harris ahead by several points MichiganHe suggests that if any candidate were to come forward, it would be him.

We don’t yet know how profound the consequences of such a large gender gap will be. What we do know is that they are common: a second survey published by . New York Times/Siena College this weekend put Harris ahead of Trump in the following battlegrounds: Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. The two candidates tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania; Trump, who once dominated the race, now only leads in Arizona.

It’s also clear that Tuesday will be another night of victories for abortion rights advocates as they push ballot initiatives before voters in Nebraska, Florida, Maryland and other states.

One thing is for sure; Kamala Harris seems to have the wind at her back. The big question for Tuesday: How hard will this push him?