This story of Liberty Darr first published In Other Article on October 31st.

Two neighboring school districts in Chittenden County — Champlain Valley School District and South Burlington School District — have seen conflicting enrollment trends over the past five years.

Total enrollment in Vermont public schools, kindergarten through 12th grade, has declined steadily by just over 6 percent between 2003 and 2023, according to a state education profile report released in August by the Education Agency. The decline in kindergarten through 12th grade during the same period was almost 14 percent, but most of that change occurred before the pandemic.

Schools in the Champlain Valley School District, the state’s largest district, remained in line with the statewide trend, with total enrollment declining by about 7 percent between 2019 and 2024, according to data provided by the district. The most notable is Hinesburg Public School, where enrollment dropped more than 11 percent from pre-kindergarten through 8th grade. Shelburne Community School saw a similar 7 percent decline, and Charlotte Community School saw a nearly 6 percent decline.

“We are seeing a slow and steady decline in our elementary schools,” said Gary Marckres, the district’s chief operating officer. “Specifically, the trend is declining, although this is supported by the demographic report we prepared in 2022, we are experiencing a slightly greater decline than the demographic report suggests.”

Meanwhile, South Burlington saw a different trend, with enrollment slowly but steadily increasing. Total enrollment for the school district this year is about 4 percent higher than in 2019, according to data provided by the district. Demographic reports prepared by the region show that these numbers will only increase in the coming years.

South Burlington School District administrators have long been aware of enrollment trends. In 2021, they shifted much of their focus to finding solutions to overcrowded elementary schools, which at the time were exceeding the state’s recommended 85 percent capacity by more than 100 students.

The school installed eight zero-emission modular classrooms, four at Rick Marcotte Elementary School and four at Orchard Elementary School, at a cost of approximately $6 million. Portable buildings vary in size and use, and school officials have previously said they can help provide an immediate, if temporary, solution to a long-term problem.

The district’s three elementary schools (kindergarten through 5th grade) have increased by nearly 200 students since 2019. Chamberlin Elementary School saw a nearly 6 percent increase in enrollment, while Rick Marcotte Central School saw a 2 percent increase. However, enrollment at Orchard Elementary School decreased by nearly 7 percent. There is no pre-kindergarten class in this primary school.

Consistent with the trend, the city’s Frederick H. Tuttle Middle School also saw an increase of nearly 3 percent.

Although elementary school statistics differ for the two school districts, high school enrollment is down at both Champlain Valley Union and South Burlington high schools. Total enrollment at CVU has fallen 3 percent since 2019, while South Burlington High School has seen an 11 percent decline in its student population.

Total enrollment at South Burlington High School in 2024 is 818. In CVU it is 1.268.

On behalf of Champlain Valley, Marckres explained that these numbers are significant because the number of 9th graders entering high school is not as large as the number of seniors leaving high school.

But he said the root of the problem is much bigger.

Interim superintendent Adam Bunting called enrollment trends in the district since 2016 “alarming” and said in a presentation to the Shelburne Selectboard in September that the state’s aging population is compounding the problem when fewer people are having children.

But while much of the state grapples with a mounting economic crisis, each town faces unique challenges. From the rising cost of living this year, driven in part by a change in the state’s education funding formula, to rising property taxes, school officials recognize it’s all negatively impacting enrollment.

Marckres said the lack of available housing only compounds the problem. Enrollment trends between the two regions reflect housing availability in the towns that make up the districts. South Burlington has the third-highest total number of housing units in Chittenden County, behind Burlington and Essex, according to the Vermont Housing Needs Assessment.

“My sense is that South Burlington has emphasized and built very affordable housing over the last five years. I think that’s driven by the connection to housing,” Marckres said.

But in the towns that make up most of the Champlain Valley School District, the number of new homes permitted slowed during the pandemic and in subsequent years. Coupled with the change in education funding formula and the reduction in taxing capacity due to adjusted student weight combined with declining enrollment, “it’s a pretty big cause for concern,” he said, referring to when the district will begin preparing its budget.

“This alone is not a problem,” Marckres said. “From my perspective, this is not a CVSD position. I look at jobs, economic development, incentives to bring new people to Vermont; they are a statewide problem.”