Harris and Trump tied at 48% in New York Times/Siena questionnaire There’s a slight decline in Harris’ three-point lead in the New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls, as reported Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points). surveys It was released on October 12.

In three other polls released last week, Harris is ahead, Trump is ahead in three polls and the tie remains in two other polls.

Harris up two points at Marist, 50%-48% questionnaire That includes undecided voters leaning toward one candidate (margin of error 3.4 points) and a one-point margin in the Washington Post, 48%-47% questionnaire (margin of error 3.1 points), both released Friday, and the Post poll show no movement in the race since the September poll.

Trump up 50 percent to 49 percent both ways Fox News poll The vast majority of voters in Pennsylvania will vote on Wednesday — within a three-point margin of error — and he has a lead of 47 percent to 46 percent. quinnipiac The poll of likely voters was released Wednesday (margin of error is 2.1 points and respondents could choose other candidates).

Harris also has a narrow 49%-48% lead in the Cooperative Election Study questionnaire published this week (3,685 respondents surveyed as part of a national survey of universities conducted by YouGov).

Meanwhile, the race remains dead even at 48%-48%. CNN/SSRS poll of voters likely to vote Wednesday — just 8% said they were undecided or might change their mind — and CBS/YouGov A likely voter survey released Tuesday found a similar tie of 49-49%.

Turnout may play a role: Trump was ahead 47 percent to 46 percent monmouth The survey of all registered voters was released Wednesday, but the race remains tied at 48-48% among respondents who are highly motivated to vote, with Harris leading 48-47% among those who have voted in most or all general elections since 2014 (margin of error 3.8 points).

Poll averages close to a tie with Trump narrowly ahead: Trump leads Pennsylvania by 0.2 points on FiveThirtyEight average.

Pennsylvania receives more electoral votes (19) than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners; The candidate who wins Pennsylvania also wins Michigan and Wisconsin (all three states together are known as “Pennsylvania”). “blue wall”) in the last eight elections.

According to statistician Nate Silver, Pennsylvania has a much better chance of leading the election than other battleground states. election prediction modelIt also found that both candidates have a greater than 85% chance of winning the election if they secure Pennsylvania.

Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, bucked the trend in 2020 as the state put him above the 270-vote threshold needed to win the Election. university

Pennsylvania is also important to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

The state has a large share of white, working-class voters, with about 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white — a demographic group in which Trump typically performs well, but Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020 . He’s only three points behind Trump nationally, according to the latest data PBS News/NPR/Marist pollAfter Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.