Two thousand twenty-four was rude to officials around the world.

“mother of all choices” He saw voters in the UK send the ruling Conservative Party packing. In June, the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority in South Africa for the first time. Japan’s long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in elections held just two weeks ago. French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call early parliamentary elections this summer has backfired spectacularly. Each of the three parties in Germany’s ruling “traffic light coalition” received a negative response from voters in last month’s crucial state elections.

Will the United States be another country that sees the incumbent administration defeated?

At first glance, Kamala Harris seems to be able to buck this trend. Voters say economy is in good shape their most important problem. While the British, French, German, Japanese and South African economies are struggling, the US economy is growing. The Ministry of Commerce announced earlier this week that GDP growth It was 2.8 percent in the third quarter. Unemployment is near record levels. The stock market is at a record high. Inflation has cooled. Overall, the US economy looks good historically good run. aspect Wall Street Magazine title he said yesterday: “Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy.”

But Americans see things differently. The vast majority tell pollsters: economy is bad. An equally large majority of the country we moved in the wrong direction.

This disappointment helps explain why the choice was made continues to be a nail biter as a race It is entering its last four days.. Republicans to look confident He said a tight race is actually good news for Donald Trump. Polls in 2016 and 2020 grossly underestimated his actual support levels. Add in the fact that undecided voters often defect to the opponent in the closing days of elections, and it’s easy to see why the Trump team thinks Trump will be the first president to win nonconsecutive terms in office since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. .

Democrats fear a repeat of the election mistakes of 2016 and 2020. However, they hope that the elections in 2024 will eventually repeat what happened in 2022. Polls subsequently underestimated the level of public support for Democratic House candidates. What was supposed to be a red tsunami that would propel Republicans to dominance in the House of Representatives became a red trickle that left them with a precarious majority.

Today, no one knows whether 2024 will be like 2016 and 2020 or 2022. Pollsters were busy changing their methodologies This year is to correct past mistakes. They may be doing things more or less right this time. Or maybe by solving a problem they have introduced others. And as is often forgotten, poll numbers come with a margin of error. All available poll numbers in battleground states are within margins of error. Because Electoral College votes are a winner-take-all process in all but two states, even very small polls are missed could mean an unbalanced election result.

This means almost anything can happen next week. Votes in battleground states could explode in favor of either Harris or Trump, leaving one of them a clear and convincing Electoral College winner. Or 2024 could be so close that vote recounts and lawsuits become inevitable, potentially leading to a protracted political and legal conflict that surpasses the divisiveness of 2020.

So will the United States follow or oppose the global anti-government trend? The honest answer four days later is that everyone guessed and no one knew. With elections, as with movies, sometimes you have to wait until the end to find out how things turn out.

Campaign Update

As of this afternoon, more than 68 million Americans I already voted. That’s nearly 43 percent of the turnout four years ago. Be carefulHowever, it is difficult to draw any conclusions about who will win based on the reports. partisan and demographic composition voting so far. No one knows who early voters are supporting or who will or won’t turn out on Election Day.

Supreme Court ruled six to three It was announced Wednesday that the State of Virginia may delete approximately 1,600 names from its state voter rolls that it suspects are not citizens. Two lower federal courts had ruled against Virginia, arguing that voter rolls were too close to election day. The court did not explain its reasoning. The immediate impact of the decision is limited. Virginia has same-day registration. This means that any citizen whose name is mistakenly deleted from the ballot paper can still vote.

government officials to warn foreign interference in elections accelerated and it probably will Continue after Election Day while the votes are being counted. Some of the efforts include cyber attacks It was intended to prevent voting. Other efforts include misinformation and disinformation. Local election officials in Pennsylvania, for example, detected a fake video showing mail-in ballots being destroyed in the Keystone State. federal authorities attributed Video of a disinformation campaign based in Russia. More will follow.

What Do the Candidates Say?

Harris and Trump attempted to deliver their “closing arguments” this week. Harris spoke at a rally on the National Mall Tuesday evening. HE primarily focused on Regarding Trump’s claim that he “is not a presidential candidate who thinks about how to make his life better.” “This is someone who is unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance, and pursuing uncontrolled power.”

The vice president talked about foreign policy but broke no new ground. HE He repeated his vow “To strengthen, not surrender, America’s global leadership.” He also suggested that America’s “alliances keep the American people safe and make America stronger and more secure” and that “autocrats support Trump.”

Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. HE primarily focused He describes his intention to “make America great again” and how “Kamala Harris has shattered our middle class in less than four years.”

When he eventually returned to foreign policy, he repeated previous vows to “pay a very high tariff” for overseas manufacturers, to “end the war in Ukraine, which would never have happened if I were president” and to “stop the chaos”. in the Middle East and prevent World War III from happening.

The fact that Harris and Trump talked about the world beyond America’s borders but did not lead or dwell on it underscored the fact that foreign policy does not influence how most people vote, as it does in most of the 2024 presidential election. But while 2024 is not a “foreign policy election”, the huge differences between Harris and Trump on how the US should operate abroad means the election outcome will have a major impact on US foreign policy.

What Do Experts Say?

Finance TimesAlec Russell I took a deep dive Here’s what Trump’s foreign policy might look like. His conclusion can be understood from the title of his story: “Trump’s Foreign Policy Plan: Embrace Unpredictability.”

The results of next Tuesday’s elections are important not only for the United States but also for the rest of the world. So it’s no surprise that people around the world are debating how the outcome will affect them. My colleagues at the Council on Foreign Relations asked tank leaders and academics. Africa, America, EuropeAnd Middle East to weigh with his thoughts. Their answers show that assessments of the likely impact of the election vary depending on who won and which region or country is asked.

My colleague Lisa Robinson defended inside Foreign affairs He said Harris’ victory next week “will be consequential, perhaps even transformative.” This is because her election would “empower those fighting against tyranny” and “dispel lingering doubts that women are equipped to make decisions about war and peace.”

What Do the Surveys Show?

Pew Research Center reviewed What do Americans think about how well the 2024 elections will go? Democrats (90 percent) are much more confident that the election will go fairly well (57 percent) than Republicans (57 percent). This margin, which is 11 percentage points higher than in 2020, indicates that Trump will have significant support among his followers for a second “stop the steal campaign” if he loses again. If the choice is left to the courts, only one in five Americans is confident that the U.S. Supreme Court will be an impartial arbiter.

Campaign Program

There are four days left until election day (November 5, 2024).

Within forty-six days (December 17, 2024), electors will gather in every state and the District of Columbia to vote for president and vice president.

119^This The US Congress will take office in sixty-three days (January 3, 2025).

The US Congress will certify the results of the 2024 presidential election within sixty-six days (January 6, 2025).

Eighty days until Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025).

Oscar Berry helped prepare this article.