News spread almost like a third storm on Treasure Island, Florida: Mayor plans to leave barrier island in a month Hurricane Helene Tens of thousands of homes along the Gulf Coast were flooded and two weeks later Hurricane Milton It also devastated the state.

Mayor Tyler Payne In a message to Treasure Island residents, she explained that the house was flooded and damaged beyond repair, and that she and her husband could not afford to rebuild. He was also resigning from the mayoralty.

“While it pains my heart to make this decision in the midst of our recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, it is the best decision for me and my family,” said Payne, who has held the job for more than three years and finished fourth. -generation Treasure Island resident said Monday.

Up and down Florida storm-battered Gulf CoastResidents make the same calculations about whether to stay or go. Can they afford to rebuild? What will the insurance cover? People considering moving to Florida are considering whether it’s worth the risk. tornado prone situation.

These existential questions about Florida’s appeal come up regularly after the state experiences a busy hurricane season; for example, in 2004 when four hurricanes crossed the Sunshine State.

If moving stateside provides any answers then hurricanes It did little good as a deterrent. Florida’s population has increased by a third to 23 million in the two decades since Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan wreaked havoc on the state. Last year in Florida More than 365,000 residents addedIt ranks second among states after Texas.

On the other hand, there are signs that Florida’s hot real estate market is cooling down. Detached house sales decreased by 12% in September compared to the same period of the previous year. But interest rates, rising home prices and skyrocketing insurance costs likely played a bigger role than the recent hurricanes.

“Florida is healing much faster than you think,” he said Brad O’ConnorFlorida Realtors Chief Economist.

What happens after the storm?

Studies of hurricanes on the Gulf Coast have shown that any migration is short-lived, and if people leave it is usually a short-distance movement from the barrier island to the mainland. Older people with more financial resources are more likely to return to devastated communities.

When it comes to the housing market, an initial shock to supply may occur as homeowners wait for reimbursements from insurance companies to repair or sell their homes.

But in the three years after the hurricane, home prices in hurricane-affected areas of Florida averaged 5% higher than in other parts of the state due to reduced supply. According to a study The impact of hurricanes on Florida’s housing market from 2000 to 2016. New homeowners tend to be wealthier than their predecessors, as wealthier buyers can afford the price increases.

Other factors that determine how quickly communities recover include whether homes are insured, the speed of insurance reimbursements and whether there are enough construction workers. because stricter building codes New homes installed in the years after Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992 withstood hurricanes better than older homes, O’Connor said.

“If a property is damaged and uninsured and the homeowner says, ‘I don’t want to deal with this,’ there are always people willing to buy that property because it’s valuable land,” he said. “People are building new houses according to the new codes, and hurricanes have less impact.”

Short term and long term

Recent storms provide examples of what happens to communities in both the short term and long term.

In Lee County, home of Fort Myers, Hurricane Ian two years ago, it reached one of the fastest-growing regions in the United States. Population growth slowed from 4.4 percent before the storm to 1.5 percent after. The number of households dropped from 340,000 to 326,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

In 2019, three-quarters of all United Van Lines’ truck movements were into Lee County and a quarter were outbound, but that figure dropped to two-thirds and a third outbound by 2023-2024, the company said, according to the Associated Press.

The share of people in their late 20s, 30s and early 40s increased, as did the share of men without a spouse or partner; This reflects the influx of construction and rehabilitation workers. While the share of the white population decreased, the share of the Hispanic community increased. The percentage of utility and transportation workers in the county increased, according to the Census Bureau.

Bay County, in the Florida Panhandle Where Michael came ashore Firstly Category 5 hurricane What happened in the continental United States over the quarter-century in 2018 offers a portrait of longer-term trends. Four years later, Bay County has recovered its pre-hurricane population, which fell nearly 6% in the year after the storm.

Since Michael, the county has become more diverse, wealthier, and older; The average age increased from 39.6 to 41.4, and more people identify as multiracial or Hispanic. The share of households earning $200,000 or more increased from 4.3% before the hurricane to 8.3% in 2022; It’s a sign that some of the least affluent residents may not be able to afford to rebuild or return.

Mayor of Treasure Island

In his message to voters, Payne said he will remain connected to the Treasure Island community because his parents are from St. He said he plans to rebuild the barrier island, one of a string of beach towns known for its motels along the Gulf of Mexico west of St. Petersburg. restaurants and bars along the street. Payne, a lawyer who is also an executive in his family’s eyeglass manufacturing business, said in his message that the decision to move was “difficult.”

“I completely understand the difficult decisions many of our residents are facing,” Payne said.

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Reprinted with permission from the Associated Press.

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