Philadelphia Phillies

2024 record: 95-67

First place, NL East

Team ERA: 3.86 (11th in MLB)

Team OPS: .750 (5th in MLB)

What Went Right

The Phillies’ offense was tremendous again. They were 5th in runs scored, 6th in stolen bases, 7th in home runs, and 8th in wRC+. Kyle Schwarber had his best offensive season since 2021. Although he failed to reach 40 home runs, he had his best batting average and lowest strikeout rate in three seasons. He wasn’t as heavy, which helped him raise his batting average, and he struck out less than he had in three years. Even though he was an unorthodox leadoff hitter, he was a great player for the Phillies. The Phillies also got another strong season from Bryce Harper, who acquitted himself well at first base. The 32-year-old batted .285/.373/.525 with 30 home runs, 85 runs batted in, 87 RBIs and seven steals in 145 games. He has one of the safest bases among hitters in fantasy baseball; However, we should also point out that this was the first time since 2017 that he failed to reach double-digit steals in a season. This was also his lowest batting average all season since 2019, so perhaps we are starting a slight decline phase. of your career.

Although the Phillies’ postseason pitching was disappointing, their bullpen ranked 6th in baseball in win rate while their starters finished 6th in K-BB%. Each of the four primary starting pitchers had ERAs under 3.60, and Zack Wheeler is one of the most reliable starters in fantasy and real baseball with a 2.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 28.5% strikeout rate in 200 innings pitched. continues to happen. While Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez haven’t reached those heights, they’re all keeping the fantasy alive in all formats, with Nola carrying his curveball to another solid season despite the drop in strikeouts and more hits allowed.

What Went Wrong

Not much went wrong for the Phillies in the regular season, as they posted the second-best record in baseball. But we may have seen the beginning of a decline for JT Realmuto. The 33-year-old player suffered a knee injury and played in only 99 matches. This led to just two stolen bases, and as a .260 hitter with 20 home run power, his lack of steals and declining health now placed him near the top, but in the middle of a large pack of catching options. The Phillies also couldn’t get anything out of their fifth starter, Taijuan Walker, who was a disaster in the rotation. Depending on your defensive measure, the Phillies were a poor defensive team, especially in the outfield with Nick Castellanos. The team tried to improve its outfield defense with the combination of Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh, but neither could offer much offensively. The Phillies also had some solid relievers, but their bullpen ERA ranked 14th in baseball and they seemed to have trouble finding a reliable closer all season long. This was an issue that reared its ugly head in the postseason.

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Fantasy Inclined

– We may have seen the end of Trea Turner as an elite fantasy shortstop option. With Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz taking over the position, Turner has just 19 stolen bases in 121 games in 2024. While that pace isn’t too far off from what he’s done over the last few seasons, he’s also attempted just 30 tackles in 2022 and just 30 tackles in 2023. Turner is batting .295/.338/.469 with 88 home runs and 21 home runs this season, so he’s still a good fantasy player and will produce a solid batting average. run totals as you approach the top of an elite squad; But his stolen bases are no longer even close to the best players in the league. Turner will be 32 next season, and if you can only count on him to get 25-30 steals, that could put him closer to players like Oneil Cruz than other shortstops in the first two rounds.

– Alec Bohm followed up his career year in 2023 with a little more of the same. His home run total dropped from 20 to 15, but he posted a solid .280 batting average and hit 97 runs in the middle of an elite lineup. Bohm won’t run and will probably always be a 15-20 home run bat, but if you wait to draft a third baseman and need the option to drive in runs and bat for a high batting average, he could be one. solid fantasy presence.

– Nick Castellanos has his lowest turnover rate since 2021, but the rest of his fantasy production appears to be in decline. He’ll be 33 next year and is coming off a season in which he hit .254/.311/.431 with 23 home runs, 80 runs batted in, 86 RBIs and six steals in 162 games. You don’t turn your nose up at it, and his batting average was significantly better in the second half of the year, but he’s no longer an elite powerhouse and has never been a reliable source of velocity or batting average. so he falls into a large group of outfielders who could be your OF4-5 in fantasy leagues.

– Brandon Marsh will remain on the fantasy radar in deeper formats if he starts another year in midfield. What he does is unremarkable, but useful. Marsh slashed .249/.328/.419 with 16 home runs and 19 steals in 135 games. He traded his batting average for a little more power this season, an outfielder who can go 15/20 on an elite roster has value in 15-team leagues and deeper.

-As I mentioned before, the Phillies have a safe and stable rotation. Wheeler is an elite fantasy star and Aaron Nola is a solid SP2. Both Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez make a great backend for your fantasy rotation starters, with more value in deeper formats. The Phillies just need a fifth starter.

– Perhaps one of the potential trio of Andrew Painter, Seth Johnson and Mick Abel will emerge as an option for the rotation. The painter is the leader of this competition for now. The 21-year-old missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery but is now back and playing in the Arizona Fall League. The Phillies may want someone else to win the job after spring training, but Painter, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, could push for the job. Seth Johnson struggled in his first MLB start this year, but pitched solid in Triple-A for Baltimore and this year for Philadelphia, pitching to a 2.74 ERA in 23 innings after the trade; although it suffered from poor command. Finally, Mick Abel followed up a good 2023 season with a dismal 2024 with a 6.46 ERA and 7.6% K-BB rate in 108.2 innings. But he’ll be 24 next year, and if he has a good spring training, the Phillies might take a chance on him.

-With both Carlos Estevez and Jeff Hoffman becoming free agents, the Phillies will need to find a new closer. Maybe one of Orion Kerkering or Matt Strahm might show up. The 23-year-old Kerkering certainly has closer work and has posted a 2.29 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 63 innings in a prep role this season. He doesn’t have an MLB save to his name yet, so to start him in a closer role the team will need to feel comfortable with his attitude there. Strahm has pitched shutouts before as part of a committee, but the left-hander has also been extremely valuable in multiple innings, so the Phillies may want to keep him there.

Key Free Agencies

Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, Spencer Turnbull

Team Needs

With Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez potentially leaving in free agency, Closer should be at the top of the Phillies’ list. The Phillies still have Orion Kerkering, but the Phillies’ bullpen was terrible in the NLDS loss to the Mets and they will definitely look to add a few options on the back end of the bullpen this offseason. They also need to decide whether their fifth starter will be a free agent or one of the young pitchers in their organization. The infield appears to be comprised of Harper, Turner, Bohm and Bryson Stott, with Nick Castellanos likely returning as a right fielder, which means the only opening on the roster will be at left wing if they decide to give Brandon Marsh another year in center field Austin The venue where Hays finished the season. However, when you have the second-best record in the league, you don’t need to do many things differently.