Tesla’s (TSLA -1.14%) Shares are up 20% in the last three days, thanks to the market’s positive reaction to the company’s third-quarter financial results. The business said adjusted earnings per share came in above Wall Street forecasts. This also helped founder and Chief Executive Elon Musk predict that 2025 vehicle growth will be between 20% and 30%.

With its shares up 1,600% since October 2014, momentum is building in this industry that has crushed it over the past decade. But investors rightfully care about what the future holds. Where will this summit be? electric vehicle (EV) stock Will it happen in 10 years?

Still in car business

In the three months ending September 30, Tesla generated $25.2 billion in revenue. Although the business operates in the energy production and storage sector, 79% of its revenue is related to automobile sales. Tesla is essentially an automaker, and there’s a good chance that’ll still be the case ten years from now.

This may not bode well for the stock price. Tesla has seen fantastic growth and improved margins as it launches electric vehicles in a market that is largely its own. But there is now too much competition, limiting the company’s ability to use its pricing power.

In addition, automobile companies macroeconomic forces these are beyond their control. Over the past few years, high interest rates have suppressed consumer demand for Tesla vehicles. There is also the challenge of securing sufficient commodity inputs for production.

If in 10 years Tesla still makes most of its money from selling electric vehicles, I’m confident the stock will be a loss for investors who expect much more from the business.

Hoping for an autonomous future

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla’s main revenue driver and business operations in 2034 look the same as they do now. But Tesla’s strongest supporters foresee a future in which the company will look significantly different from today. If that happens, the stock could continue to be a big winner.

Tesla can run autonomous robotaxi fleet one that operates 24 hours a day and generates high-margin revenue for the business. Musk has previously said this service could have “semi-infinite” demand.

It is difficult for anyone to make an informed guess as to when or if this dream will come true. Musk said the Cybercab will enter production in 2026 and that fully autonomous driving technology, the advanced version that does not require human intervention, is still not a real thing. No one has any idea if or when these events will happen, but what we do know is that Musk has a history of delaying important deadlines.

Making predictions about technological developments and adoption is extremely difficult to do accurately. Investors should adopt the same mindset when examining Tesla and understand that there is a lot of uncertainty.

market optimism

Tesla shares have made a big gain but are now trading at a discount of about 35% to their high price.

Even so, the stock looks extremely expensive and is selling at a very high price. price-earnings (P/E) ratio about 74, more than twice the average S&P 500. I believe this reflects the market’s expectation that Tesla will achieve its autonomous vehicle goals in the future – perhaps within the next decade.

But no one has any idea about the final outcome. And current valuation prices are quite optimistic about what the future might look like.

Tesla has crushed it for investor portfolios over the last 10 years. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock underperforms expectations. Nasdaq Composite directory over the next ten years.