A new survey of economists has found that most economists still predict a rate cut by March next year; But one investment bank warned that big spending choices would delay aid for months.

A Bloomberg survey of 45 experts released Wednesday predicts the Federal Reserve will take action in early 2025.

But optimism is waning. On the same day, financial institution Citi withdrew its forecast for a three-month interest rate cut from February to May.

The bank joined NAB and RSBC Capital in thinking landlords would wait another six months to pop the champagne.

Citi said minutes from the RBA’s November meeting showed the job market was in excellent shape and economic growth was picking up.

Financial conditions appeared easier as consumers and businesses borrowed more; It’s a sign that the RBA isn’t on too tight a leash, even after an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates since 2022.

Citi predicted the central bank would want to see two positive results in quarterly inflation data before cutting its benchmark interest rate.

“Our view is that rising household incomes, resilient employment and the prospect of further fiscal stimulus will support a moderate acceleration in real consumer spending going forward,” the investment bank said in a note.

Federal and State elections next year also risked upsetting the apple basket as politicians chase votes through cash and sugar splashes.

“However, there is a risk that the first rate cut will not occur until at least August 2025,” Citi said.

“Fiscal policy may be more supportive of activity from two State elections and Federal elections (the second of which is likely to be held in late May 2025).”

The public sector’s share of the economy has increased since the pandemic, with annual Federal Government spending increasing by an eye-popping 42 percent in the last five years.

ANZ was less pessimistic. The four major banks said that there were signs in the minutes that the RBA had opened the door to lower interest rates and that they maintained their February rate cut forecasts.

On Wednesday, markets gave only a 9 percent chance of a rate cut at the RBA’s December meeting.