new York
CNN
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A. banana taped to the wall It was first sold for $120,000 in 2019. It could fetch as much as $1.5 million at Sotheby’s auction this week.

More than 1,600 auction lots are expected to generate more than $1 billion this week; this includes Maurizio Cattelan’s “Comedian.” duct-taped banana), Andy Warhol’s “Skyscrapers of New York” and Rene Magritte’s “Empire of Light,” offered by major auctioneers Sotheby’s, Phillips and Christie’s.

Artists and art dealers hope sales will spark a rebound from 2023, when the market for high-end artworks contracted 27 percent from the previous year. This is the first decline since 2020. Merrill Lynch.

And the selloff could be a test of how the wealthy feel about both the current and future economy after President-elect Donald Trump was elected to a second term just a few weeks ago.

Alex Glauber, founder of AWG Art Consulting and president of the Association of Professional Art Consultants, told CNN that Trump’s victory “will probably add some vigor and momentum to the market.”

That’s because many of the former president’s policies in his first term helped the wealthy — the kind of customers who would shop at upcoming art auctions — get even richer.

“Economic policies that disproportionately benefit the wealthy should catalyze demand in both the primary market for emerging talent and the secondary market for more established and branded artists,” Glauber said.

Slightly more than half of the sales at Phillips, Christie’s and Sotheby’s, which will carry the three works of art in question, took place in New York. 34 of the first 50 auction lots sold According to Art Basel and UBS Art Market Report, in 2023.

Christie’s is auctioning 689 lots this week as part of its November art auctions. Sales are estimated to be up to $796 million. Belgian surrealist René Magritte’s “Empire of Light” is expected to gross at least $95 million at Christie’s.

“It is poised to set a new record for the artist and establish a new reference point for the entire Surrealist movement,” said Marc Porter, president of Christie’s Americas. “This sale truly offers collectors a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and we can’t wait to see how our customers react.”

Such purchases cost a significant amount of money, even though spending by such customers fell last year. The average amount spent by high-net-worth individuals on art fell 32% in 2023 from the previous year, according to the Art Basel and UBS Global Collecting Survey. report.

Still, the incoming Trump administration is touting tax cuts that could bode well for auctions of expensive collectibles and alternative assets, such as art.

First Trump administration tax cuts to expire in 2025 expand them during his second presidency. Already speculative assets like cryptocurrency have surged on Trump’s friendly White House expectations.

But Todd Levin of the Levin Art Group was skeptical that tax cuts would do much for the art market. Tax cuts might help a little, but otherwise wouldn’t make a big difference for ultra-rich people who collect art, he said.

“It won’t make a huge difference in terms of your financial strategy,” he said.

Another obstacle the art market has faced in the last few years is high interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to the highest level in two decades to combat pandemic-era inflation. Only in September of this year Fed finally started cutting interest rates.

“When (interest rates) fall, the market heats up because capital is cheap and collectors look for tangible assets as a store of value,” Glauber said. “However, this could be short-lived if they trigger a resurgence of inflation, made worse by proposed trade policies.”

Doug Woodham, an art consultant and former chairman of Christie’s Americas, said investors who benefited from tax cuts during Trump’s first term may be hopeful for an extension under Trump’s second presidency and lower interest rates that will help spur economic growth.

This, he said, would likely increase the wealth of those who invest in stocks, real estate and other assets “where people can choose to spend however they want,” including art.

According to Woodham, New York’s spring and fall art auctions could be a sign of things to come in the global art market. The stock market has rallied since the election, fueled by expectations of pro-business policies from the Trump administration.

While Glauber said the art industry will ultimately be affected by interest rates and the potential for inflation to return, he said sentiment was strong in the November auctions.

“For now, there is certainly a palpable energy and renewed sense of optimism in the market heading into the auctions and Miami art fairs that close out the calendar year for the art world,” Glauber said.

But Amy Whitaker, an associate professor of art and economics at NYU Steinhardt, said the effects of the U.S. presidential election results on November auctions could be noisy and difficult to detect.

Instead, he said, auctions offer an opportunity to think about artists and how their works are offered for sale, perhaps more meaningful than the price tag on the artwork.

“I think it’s fair to say that the purpose of ‘The Comedian’ is to draw attention to the entire context in which the work is shown,” Whitaker said.