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Salary Cap Increase Rumors Could Dramatically Change Maple Leafs’ Plans – The Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs
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Salary Cap Increase Rumors Could Dramatically Change Maple Leafs’ Plans – The Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs

Elliotte Friedman reported this weekend that the NHL and NHLPA will hold talks about the salary cap under a new CBA. Friedman stated Saturday HeadlineThis Negotiations could lead to the cap being raised to $95 million or even $97 million starting next season. How will this impact the Toronto Maple Leafs and their offseason plans? The answer is potentially large size.

What’s the Story of the Salary Cap?

Friedman stated that the league may decide to keep the cap increase as projected and around $92 million. But a jump could come sooner to offset lower forecasts, as previous negotiations had set the cap at conservative levels due to concerns about revenue during COVID. A large increase in the salary cap is expected as revenues far exceed the imposed guardrails.

The NHL and NHLPA could apply the jump to the 2025-26 or 2026-27 season. Why is this important? This is important because many teams, including the Maple Leafs, have big contracts and decisions coming up.

Mitch Marner Status

Mitch Marner‘s situation in Toronto has been discussed publicly for a while. A pending unrestricted free agent who hopes to stay but wants the kind of money Auston Matthews and William Nylander are making, there is speculation the Leafs may not want to move that high. Some fans have suggested it’s time to move on, but Marner is an elite player and is showing just how good he is with Matthews currently out of the squad.

Salary Cap Increase Rumors Could Dramatically Change Maple Leafs’ Plans – The Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (Jess Starr/Hockey Writers)

If the Maple Leafs are even remotely hesitant about paying Mitch Marner $12-13 million per season or considering a different path this summer, a significant increase in the salary cap could ease their concerns. If the cap increases to $95-97 million next season, the additional $3-5 million could offset concerns about the impact of giving Marner a $3 million raise and create less of a burden for the organization.

Marner, meanwhile, can easily claim to be worth a percentage of the cap, lobbying for just under what Matthews makes. The $97 million cap hit gives the Leafs a reason to say yes.

What about John Tavares?

When John Tavares gave up the captaincy, not many expected him to be one of the most productive and effective forwards of the 2024-25 season. He has collected 17 points in 18 games and the pressure seems to have helped this season. He is signing a contract worth $11 million per season and there is speculation that both sides want to extend the contract, but money is a major concern.

Relating to: NHL Rumors: Oilers, Maple Leafs, Blues, Red Wings, Blackhawks

It’s a fair assumption that Tavares will receive a team-friendly discount. How much is debated. There was real reason to believe the Leafs could move on if he wanted so badly. With an increase in the salary cap, Toronto may not have to underestimate Tavares and/or open the door to a situation like the one that occurred between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Steven Stamkos.

Matthew Knies: Long-Term or Bridge Deal?

One of the decisions the Maple Leafs will have to make this summer will be whether to extend the contract. Matthew Knies Work on a long-term extension or bridge him with a shorter-term deal to see what kind of player he develops into. With eight goals this season, he looks like a guy who could score 30-plus goals, and if the salary cap takes a big jump, not locking him to a lower AAV could cost the Leafs dearly down the road.

For example, let’s say the Maple Leafs take a calculated risk and sign Knies to a long-term deal for slightly less than the deal Juraj Slafkovsky will make in Montreal next season. If the Leafs can get Knies on a seven- or eight-year contract for $7 million per season, which seems like a lot right now, but if the cap hit is $97 million in 2025-26, it could be a valuable contract. And as the salary cap continues to rise along with league revenues, that $7 million is looking better every day.

But if the Leafs hang on and Knies scores 30+ goals in each of the next three seasons, he’ll be a $10-11 million player when his bridge deal expires.

Like many teams, the Maple Leafs will need to make some big decisions as their salary cap is expected to take a big jump. Do they keep everyone? Are they locking young players into deals that could pose risks but also create great value?