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Sixers-Heat preview: Is a Jimmy Butler trade coming?

Harry November 18, 2024

The Sixers spent a weekend away in beautiful Florida after their terrible loss to the Orlando Magic on Friday night. They will now return to action in hopes of improving to 3-10 on the season as they face the Heat in Miami.

I want to talk about a Miami team that is in a bit of trouble here. John JablonkaHas great Heat and NBA analysis on its substack, Simply Ballin together Anyone Can Heat. Let’s talk to John:

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Adam Aaronson: I have to start with a Jimmy Butler question because like Considering his availability for this game, Butler’s future seems uncertain at the moment. From your perspective, what is Butler’s relationship with the Heat like now and how real is his chance of playing for another team in the near future?

John Jablonka: This might be the ultimate escape answer, but anything related to Butler could be on the table and I wouldn’t be surprised regardless. Butler is giving off Kawhi Leonard vibes in terms of how he might feel about anything to do with the team, the front office, or what he’ll do in the future.

Before arriving in Miami, the general atmosphere was as good as it could be. There were rumors and reports of him developing cancer in the locker room and numerous incidents of conflict with not only the players but also the coaches and management. But in Miami, he was immediately welcomed by the fans and everyone else in the franchise. I don’t think that has ever changed with him and his relationships with the coaching staff or management.

Pat Riley was calling him out on the pressure thing, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was just another Wednesday for the Heat. This is the same Butler who, as always, should be kept from going after Erik Spoelstra before making a deep playoff run. Whatever Butler’s situation is, I think it will be an independent decision for him to make because he feels it is best for him in other respects rather than the relationship breaking down.

It is quite possible that Butler will play on another team. He and his manager said they wanted to get paid. The Heat were reluctant to extend him a contract. Everything is on the table depending on your game and how the market plays out in the future. This is a really weird situation because it depends on so many different factors that could swing the decision in either direction, so it’s hard to predict.

AA: Every few years, everyone prepares to write an obituary for this era of Heat basketball, and the team inevitably undergoes a resurgence. Do you think that’s in the cards this season, or is it finally time for the Heat to bounce back?

What are you doing? The logical part of me says it’s over, but the fan is still holding on to what’s left. If it’s not over, this is definitely the last dance because even through the thickest of fan glasses, I can’t see this core legitimately competing for the title for another year.

Anything that could potentially lead to a resurgence starts and ends with Butler. In both 2022 and 2023 deep playoff runs, they all involved Butler playing at at least a top-10 level. He played like a top-three player in some episodes. Every competitor needs a player of this quality and if they don’t have one, nothing else matters. The depth of young players they may have probably won’t matter. Terry Rozier won’t make a difference. Even Tyler Herro’s progress doesn’t make a resurgence possible.

I want to believe Butler can make that change in April. But he is doing everything to show otherwise, and the recent ankle injuries he has suffered make the case less convincing. I’d also like to point out that the idea of Butler flipping the switch is over-hyped in terms of the overall look you might see on social media. Butler is all about “trolling” the regular season narrative, which isn’t something that usually happens. He was always involved in the attack. He looked engaged. He was the Heat’s best player, impressive in more ways than one. This year, that was not the case at all.

He’s also earned the biggest benefit of the doubt for me, and I don’t believe he can’t do it until the time is right. If this happens, they will still need 11 out of 10 things to go right for them. They will need the right matchups, injury luck, hot shooting and random starts. While so many things need to go right, I can’t see it going to be anything like previous years.

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AA: Speaking of Rozier, he’s the reason Kyle Lowry is a Six. Miami traded Lowry last offseason and received Rozier and a first-round pick (Lowry was later acquired by the Charlotte Hornets, making him a free agent). How has Rozier performed since the deal, and how would you rate the Lowry-for-Rozier trade in hindsight?

What are you doing? If I could I would answer this with “I’m in trouble if I talk.” gif, because it wasn’t beautiful at all.

Rozier was as advertised. A. A lot A streaky, consistently inconsistent small guard who needs the ball to be effective but isn’t good for that role due to ball handling, poor shooting diet, limited passing, and much worse defense than I expected. This year was worse than ever because he was coming back from a much more serious neck injury than you’d expect. He’s definitely not bad at this level when it comes to his scoring and efficiency.

But it was a very bad deal. It doesn’t make much sense to trade an expiring contract that would give the Heat more flexibility under the second apron, as well as a first-round pick from an already limited war chest.

I initially thought this would be traded for a guard who could give you some light shot creation support and rim pressure that they haven’t had since Goran Dragić. I wasn’t expecting the Rozier-lite version from the Hornets. He needs to get back to at least his career averages, but even when he does it probably won’t be very good or a significant change.