Kyiv, Ukraine — An Associated Press investigation has found that engineers at a secret factory in Russia’s central pastures are producing hundreds of dummy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses as they try to guard against a terrifying new weapon.

The investigation revealed that the facility in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone had recently begun producing thermobaric drones as well as decoys. Thermobaric warheads create a vortex of high pressure and heat that can penetrate thick walls. They suck up all the oxygen in their path, and even outside the initial blast area they have a fearsome reputation for the injuries they sustain: collapsed lungs, crushed eyeballs, brain damage.

Russia came up with the decoy plan in late 2022 and called it Operation False Target, according to a person familiar with Russia’s drone production who spoke on condition of anonymity because the industry is highly sensitive.

The idea was to launch armed drones with dozens of decoys, sometimes stuffed with rags or foam and indistinguishable on radar from those carrying real bombs. Ukrainian forces must make split-second decisions about how to spend scarce resources to save lives and protect critical infrastructure.

“The aim was to build a drone that would create a feeling of complete uncertainty in the enemy. “So he doesn’t know whether this is a truly lethal weapon or a foam toy,” he said. With thermobarics, there is now a “huge risk” that an armed drone could veer off course and crash into a residential area “and the damage would be simply horrific,” he said.

Russia’s unmanned aerial vehicle factory

Dozens of decoys have filled the Ukrainian skies in recent weeks, each appearing like an indistinguishable dot on military radar screens. During the first weekend in November, the Kiev region was under air alert for 20 hours, with the buzzing sounds of drones mixed with the rumble of air defenses and rifle fire.

Unarmed decoys now account for more than half of the drones targeting Ukraine, according to the person and Serhii Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian electronics expert whose black military van is equipped with electronic jammers to shoot down drones.

Both the unarmed decoys and the Iranian-designed armed Shahed drones are produced at a factory in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, an industrial complex founded in 2006 about 600 miles east of Moscow to attract businesses and investments to Tatarstan. Expanded after 2022 invasion Ukrainian Some industries have moved into military production by adding new buildings and renovating existing facilities, according to satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press.

The factory promotes itself as an innovation center in social media videos. But David Albright of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security said Alabuga’s current aim is only to produce unmanned aerial vehicles and sell them to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The videos and other promotional media were removed after an AP investigation found that many African women hired to fill a labor shortage complained that they had been duped into taking factory jobs.

Russia and Iran signed a $1.7 billion deal for the Witnesses in 2022. President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraineand Moscow began using unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, imported from Iran in the war later that year. Shortly after the agreement was signed, production started in Alabuga.

In October, Moscow attacked with at least 1,889 drones, according to AP analysis that tracked drones for months; This number is 80% more than in August. On Saturday, Russia launched 145 drones across Ukraine, just days after Donald’s re-election Trump casts doubt on US support for the country.

Most drones crash, are shot down or are diverted by electronic jammers, according to AP analysis of Ukrainian military briefings. Less than 6% have reached a discernible goal, according to data analyzed by the AP since the end of July. But the figures mean a handful of people could escape every day; That’s enough to be lethal.

Daily drone swarms

Swarms have become a depressing fact of life for Ukrainians.

Russian drone tactics continue to evolve. Now air defenses are exhausted by drones, while more powerful missiles often follow them closely. The most destructive of these are ballistic and cruise missiles, which buzz loudly and can be tracked with the naked eye, flying many times faster than drones.

Even traps can benefit Russia. A decoy with a live feed camera allows the aircraft to determine the geolocation of Ukraine’s air defenses and transmit the information to Russia in the final moments of its mechanical life.

Every night, Ukrainian snipers mobilize to shoot down drones with portable surface-to-air missiles.

Rosmaryn, a sniper who, like most Ukrainian soldiers, asked to be identified by his call sign, said he had shot down perhaps a dozen drones in almost two years and saw one filled with rags and foam. Rosmaryn sees her enemy in almost human terms and describes her quest to defeat the small unit of the plane.

“He was part of a flying flock, one of the last ones,” he said. “When we’re in the sky we can’t tell what type it is because everything is inside the drone. “We can only learn after we are shot.”

Many fly between 6,500 feet and 10,000 feet before descending to lower altitudes on their final approach, Rosmaryn said. Leaked videos show that Ukraine is now using helicopters to shoot down high-altitude drones.

Thanks to optical trickery, the radar cannot distinguish a drone armed with Shahed’s usual 50-kilogram explosive payload, or a thermobaric weapon, also known as a vacuum bomb, from drones without a warhead or equipped with live-stream surveillance cameras. There are other drones of even cruder quality, armed and unarmed, but they are fewer in number than the Shahed-style drones.

Therefore, Ukraine cannot let anything pass, even if it knows that decoys now make up most of the incoming swarm.

“For us, it’s just a dot on the radar… It has speed, direction and altitude,” said Air Force spokesman Col. Yurii Ihnat. “We have no way of pinpointing the target during flight, so we must either jam them with electronic warfare or use firepower to neutralize them. “The enemy uses these to distract us.”

The engines and electronics of the armed Witnesses and the traps are a mix of Chinese and Western imports, according to parts seen by The Associated Press at a Ukrainian military laboratory. Despite nearly three years of sanctions, Moscow is able to procure parts largely from China and third countries in Central Asia and the Middle East.

Halfway through his series of weather warnings on November 2, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that the Shahid swarms, which he put at 2,000 for October, were made possible by Western technology evading sanctions.

“Inside this large number of Witnesses, there are more than 170,000 components whose delivery to Russia must be prevented. “Without microcircuits, microcontrollers, processors and many different parts, this terror would be impossible to happen,” Zelensky said.

Joint production of drones saves Russia’s military money. Production of the decoys began earlier this year, and the facility now produces about 40 cheaper unarmed drones and about 10 armed drones per day, according to a person with knowledge of Russian drone production; these cost an estimated $50,000 and take longer to produce. .

Russian news outlet Izvestia said in late October that the purpose of the trap was to “weaken” the enemy by forcing them to waste ammunition before sending in armed Witnesses.

Both Beskrestnov and the person familiar with Russian drone production said that engineers at Alabuga are also constantly experimenting and Moscow has reached the most advanced point in drone production. To make electronic interception even more difficult, they add Ukrainian SIM cards, roaming SIMS, Starlinks, fiber optics, and sometimes drones can get real-time feedback before they get stuck, crash, or run out of fuel. Sometimes they attach a silver foam ball to make the drone appear larger on radar.

The latest thermobaric variant is causing new troubles in Ukraine.

Thermobaric fears

From a military perspective, thermobarics are ideal for pursuing targets inside fortified buildings or deep underground.

Alabuga’s thermobaric drones are particularly destructive when they crash into buildings because they are also equipped with ball bearings to cause maximum damage even beyond the superheated explosion, Albright said.

Beskrestnov, better known as Flash, said thermobarics were first used in the summer months; estimates they currently make up 3% to 5% of all drones.

“This type of warhead has the possibility of destroying a huge building, especially a block of flats,” he said.

They have a terrible reputation for the physical effects they cause even on people caught outside the initial blast area, said Arthur van Coller, an international humanitarian law expert at the University of Fort Hare in South Africa.

“Everything in its radius will be affected by the cloud created by a terbaric explosion,” he said. “It creates great fear in the civilian population.”

Burrows, Arhirova and Hinnant write for the Associated Press. Burrows reported from Washington, D.C. Stephen McGrath contributed from Sighisoara, Romania.