Almost everything is on the line as SEC rivals No. 12 Georgia and No. 7 Tennessee face off between the fences on Saturday night. Here’s what to look out for when the Volunteers visit the Bulldogs with our updated prediction for the game.

Everyone knew that Georgia’s season would be largely defined by its performance in three crucial road games, and so it was: The Bulldogs went 1-2 in those matchups and, as a result, were out of the current College Football Playoff bracket and without a margin. for prospective error.

Tennessee has more room to breathe, sitting atop the SEC standings with one loss on the year and firmly in the top dozen, but running some questionable offenses during conference play and ranking 10th among SEC teams in scoring during that time. .

What can we expect as the Bulldogs welcome the Volunteers in this SEC rivalry clash?

Here’s what you need to pay attention to as Georgia and Tennessee face off in this Week 12 college football matchup, along with our updated predictions for the game.

1. On the ground. Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson ranks first in the SEC in rushing production with 1,129 yards and 20 touchdowns on the year and sixth in the league with an average of 5.6 yards per carry, and much of the Vols’ offensive consistency is down to him right now.

Georgia is still more than capable against opposing defenders this season, ranking 21st nationally in rush defense, allowing just under 111 yards per game while holding rushers to just 3.35 yards per carry on average, and has allowed just 7 total touchdowns. .

2. Going deep. It’s no secret that Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has struggled against SEC opposition this season, throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10), but some of those problems stem from poor protection; He was fired 5 times last week and almost twice sacked each time.

That could be a problem against Tennessee’s front seven, which is one of the nation’s most well-coordinated and productive teams, ranked in the top 10 nationally with 71 tackles for loss, giving up nearly 8 stops per game and committing just 6 passing touchdowns. season.

3. Watch QB. All eyes are on Vols point guard Nico Iamaleava in this game. He traveled with his teamBut his status and impact on his playing status are not an open question after he left last week’s game against Mississippi State with a head injury after taking a hard hit.

Iamaleava was in concussion protocol last week, and while head coach Josh Heupel was confident his quarterback would play, the Vols offense would take a step back if he wasn’t supposed to play.

Iamaleava is good on more than 65 percent of his throws and has nearly 1,900 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and just 4 picks in SEC play this season, and the Vols look to put their best man on the field against Georgia’s seemingly vulnerable secondary.

Most football computer prediction models favor the Bulldogs over the Volunteers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia leads 61.9 percent in the majority of computer game simulations.

The other 38.1 percent of the Sims project will upset Tennessee and ruin Georgia’s season.

How does this translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

According to the model’s latest prediction, Georgia is projected to be 4.3 points better than Tennessee on the same field with both teams’ current form.

More… Georgia vs. Tennessee forecast: What analytics say

Georgia is a 9.5-point favorite over Tennessee, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total for the game at 47.5 points (over-104, under-118).

And it puts Georgia’s outright win odds at -360 and Tennessee’s at +280.

It’s very popular to pick against Georgia as analysts and bettors are willing to overreact amid the team’s recent struggles, a situation that has no choice but to take what looks like a serious decline after Kirby Smart’s program has completely dominated the sport over the past few years.

And there are very real concerns for the Bulldogs. They are not that strong inside either offensive line, their back seven has been occasionally exposed, their cover has been weak at times and there has been a relative lack of burst of skill players since Bowers’ departure. McConkey.

Not enough has been said about the Vols’ defense: they rank 5th nationally in allowing just 12.6 points per game and have not allowed more than 19 points on a single opponent all season.

Tennessee’s specialized defensive scheme will win more than half of the tackles against Georgia’s blockers, and the No. 9-ranked rushing offense will keep the game close from start to finish.

But one aspect of Tennessee’s success rushing the ball stands out: It’s come at the expense of some of the worst run defenses in the SEC this year; All but one of their rivals are in the bottom half of the conference in this category.

This isn’t a knock on Sampson’s memorable year or the quality of UT’s program, but it’s worth mentioning given the relative increase in competition he’ll face amid the stakes.

Georgia’s front-line defenders have struggled, but the Vols’ quarterback situation may cause this offense to operate at only half its true capacity on the road against a team with a grudge.

College Football Headquarters selections…

More… Georgia vs. expert football model Tennessee score prediction

When: Saturday, November 16
Where: Athens, Ga.
Time: 19:30 Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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