Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)

When: Sunday, 14:05 MT

Where: Strengthen the Field at Mile High Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/FOX

Broncos-Falcons series: Denver was 8-7 in 15 regular season games dating back to 1970; The Broncos lost 34-27 in the last game played in Atlanta on November 8, 2020, making it two consecutive defeats against the Falcons.

In the spotlight: Atlanta’s biggest weakness could lead to a big day for Bo Nix

Facing the Saints in Week 10, the Falcons did their best to put pressure on quarterback Derek Carr. Their efforts failed.

The Falcons had their second-highest rate of the season (48.1%) but generated only two pressures and failed to record a sack, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Carr didn’t back down against Atlanta’s passing offense, throwing for 125 yards and a touchdown when blitzed during a stunning 20-17 victory over the Falcons.

Atlanta’s struggles to create pressure have been noticeable this fall. The Falcons have the league’s lowest pressure rate (27.4%) and total (nine). But their biggest issue could benefit Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who is currently trending in the right direction.

The Falcons had a chance to fix their pass rush issues during the 2024 draft. Jared Verse, one of the best rushers in this year’s class, was ready in time with the eighth overall pick.

Instead, Atlanta shocked the football world by drafting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., despite having signed four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins ​​to a lucrative deal just a few weeks earlier. Ranked 19th overall for the Rams in the 10th week of the season, Verse became one of the best defensive rookies in the league. He collected 4.5 sacks and 45 pressures; It ranks sixth in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ sack leader, defensive lineman Grady Jarrett, has just 2.5. Veteran outside linebacker Matt Judon, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, has 1.5 sacks and 17 pressures. Judon have had a pressure rate below 10% in four of their last five games.

The Falcons played five games with fewer than five pressures. Sunday’s defeat was their sixth time not recording a sack. They also haven’t conceded a sack in three of their last five games.

Denver, on the other hand, is among the best in the league at protecting the quarterback. According to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos allowed the seventh-lowest pressure rate (29.1%) while Nix was sacked just 17 times.

Broncos left tackle Garett Bolles He had problems in penalties, but was effective in pass protection. He gave up one sack and has the sixth-lowest pressure rate (5.5%) among offensive tackles with at least 200 pass blocks, according to Next Gen Stats.

Nix is ​​just starting to get called NFL Offensive Rookie of the Week After throwing for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Sad loss to Chiefs. Despite a handful of talented players in Atlanta’s secondary, including Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III, Denver’s clear advantage in the trenches gives the former Oregon signal-caller a chance to improve on his performance in Kansas City.

Who has the advantage?

When the Broncos run

against the chiefs, Audric Prediction He showed signs of being Denver’s top rusher, going for 53 yards on 14 carries. His ability to use his size to add power on the field is something the team needs. The rookie is averaging 5.1 yards on 29 carries. The Falcons held the Saints to 96 yards on the ground last week. Atlanta gave up less than 100 rushing yards for the first time in 2024. Edge: Double

When the Broncos pass

Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton has seen an increase in his production in recent weeks. He has thrown for a total of 345 yards on 25 receptions in the last five games. His performance against Kansas City (six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown) was his fifth game with at least 60 yards this season. Falcons cornerback AJ Terrell gave up 31 catches for 376 yards and four touchdowns. He recorded an interception in two of Atlanta’s last four games. Edge: Double

When the hawks run

Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson is a problem. According to Next Gen Stats, he has recorded more than 100 rushing yards in five consecutive games; It’s the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest by a Falcons player since wide receiver Julio Jones in 2018. But Denver will have to worry about more than just Robinson. Running back Tyler Allgeier has 85 carries for 429 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Broncos were solid against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry — fifth-best in the league. They will be tested on Sunday. Edge: Falcons

When the hawks pass

Atlanta’s pick-your-poison offense, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins, could threaten to extend Denver’s losing streak to three games. The Falcons have five players with at least 300 receiving yards, including wide receiver Drake London (58 catches for 649 yards and six touchdowns). The key for the Broncos will be to put pressure on Cousins. Denver had 20 pressures against the Chiefs, which helped the team stay in the game until the end. Edge: Double

special teams

The Broncos and Falcons had woeful performances on special teams last week. The blocked shot ended Denver’s chance to pull off its biggest upset of the season. Meanwhile, Falcons’ kicker Younghoe Koo made 1 of 4 on field goal attempts in the loss to New Orleans. But overall, the Broncos were effective in the kicking and return game. Edge: Broncos

coaching

Sean Payton is starting to learn what works in his offense. And that was evident during two touchdown drives at Arrowhead Stadium. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph had a good reaction to that after watching his team get defeated by the Ravens in Week 9. Winning two of their last three games under first-year head coach Raheem Morris, the Falcons are off to a solid start despite on-field issues. defense. Edge: Broncos

The story of the tape

(Click here to view the chart on mobile.)

by numbers

10: TD passes by Broncos QB Bo Nix

569: Receiving yards for Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

7: Sacks recorded by Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto

31: Falcons S Justin Simmons’ career interceptions

8.1: Yards per reception for Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

bet

Falcons third quarter winner (-102): Denver’s offensive struggles in the third quarter could be beneficial for the Falcons. Through 10 games, the Broncos rank 29th in total yards in the third quarter and last in passing yards at 28.1 (57.4). They were left scoreless in the third of the last two matches.

Broncos’ first scoring game, touchdown (-180): Denver scored for the first time in three consecutive games. Each score was a passing goal, two by Bo Nix and one by Courtland Sutton. With Atlanta’s inconsistent pass defense, Nix has a chance to increase his passing total on Sunday.

Publish predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 28, Falcons 27

This looks like a sneaky-tough matchup considering Kirk Cousins’ style of play, the diversity of Atlanta’s offense, and the group’s terrific running game. This is the kind of challenge that can test even the best secondaries. The brain constantly says “sadness alarm”. Sometimes you go with your instinct instead. Something tells me Sean Payton’s team is ready for this challenge.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 24, Falcons 21

In the locker room in Kansas City, the Broncos were frustrated by letting their victory over the defending champions slip through their fingers. We expect Denver to carry this aggression into Sunday’s match against Atlanta. Bo Nix will take advantage of Atlanta’s inability to generate pressure and come up with a strong performance at home.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 23, Falcons 20

The Broncos insist this team is different. It’s time to prove it. If they are a play-off team, they need to win at home against a good team. Bo Nix will join Peyton Manning as the only rookie QBs to pass for at least 200 yards and multiple touchdowns in four straight home games. And Denver will benefit from falling Younghoe Koo missing a key kick, maintaining his mark from Week 4 (8-for-15).