An old Southwest Conference rivalry game kicks off in the SEC this weekend, with No. 3 Texas hitting the road against Arkansas. As the Longhorns and Razorbacks face off on Saturday, here’s what you need to pay attention to with our updated predictions for the game.

What is Texas playing for? After some key defeats last week, everything went pretty much right after breaking into the top four and qualifying. It is the SEC champion and is expected to take the No. 2 spot in the selection committee’s final rankings this week.

Arkansas is playing for bowl rights in an up-and-down season that has seen highs like a win over No. 4 Tennessee and the bottom, like a 63-31 loss at home to Ole Miss.

What can we expect as the Longhorns and Razorbacks face off in this SEC rivalry clash?

Here’s what you need to watch as Texas and Arkansas face off in this Week 12 college football matchup, along with our updated predictions for the game.

1. Going deep. Quinn Ewers and the 10th-ranked Texas air attack need to find some angles against the Arkansas pass defense that will provide the quarterback and his receivers with quality target practice heading into postseason football.

Texas comes into the game ranked 10th nationally in total passing efficiency and 9th in passing efficiency offense, going up against a Razorbacks defense that ranks last in the SEC by allowing 266 air yards per game and ranks 125th out of 134 FBS teams. He ranks 116th in pass defense efficiency.

2. Pigs can also move. Arkansas ranks in the top five nationally in total offensive production thanks to the at-times dynamic play of dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green.

Green ranks No. 3 in the SEC among offensive quarterbacks as the Razorbacks rank 13th in the FBS in third-down conversions and score points in the red zone more than 83 percent of the time.

As their quarterback moves forward, so does the Hogs’ offense. This team can put up points with him there, but Green is also prone to turnovers as the team ranks just 89th in the FBS in turnover margin.

It’s up to the Longhorns’ front seven to apply pressure from the edges to limit his mobility and force him to make rash decisions.

3. Explosive games. Both of these offenses can blow away some big gains when they have the ball. They each rank in the top five nationally when it comes to 20-plus yard plays: Texas is third with 69 of those plays, and Arkansas isn’t far behind, ranking fifth with 60-yard receiving yards.

Most football computer prediction models favor the Longhorns over the Razorbacks.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas features in an overwhelming 85.9 percent of gaming simulations on the computer.

Another 14.1 percent of Sims predict the Razorbacks can pull off the giant upset.

How does this translate into an expected margin of victory?

According to the model’s latest prediction, Texas is expected to be 16.1 points better than Arkansas on the same field with both teams’ current form.

More… Texas-Arkansas prediction: What the analytics say

Texas is a 12.5-point favorite over Arkansas, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the score total for the game at 57.5 (over -110, under -110).

And it puts Texas’ outright win odds at -480 and Arkansas at +365.

Arkansas should move Taylen Green under center after an injury scare that sidelined him from the Ole Miss game, and his legs will allow the Razorbacks to face the Longhorns early.

But while both of these offenses have the power to pull off big plays and move the chains with regularity, only one of these defenses has the bodies to step up and stop convincingly.

Texas ranks No. 4 nationally in scoring defense, No. 1 in the FBS against the pass, second in total defense, top 15 in third down defense and top 20 stopping opponents when in the red zone.

Green can lead an attack that can create serious yardage on paper, but this offense has a tendency to slow down when it comes to scoring and should again be up against a strong Texas defense.

College Football Headquarters selections…

More… Texas-Arkansas score prediction from expert football model

When: Saturday, November 16
Time: 11:00 Central
TV: ABC network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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