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    • Why didn’t the economy help Kamala Harris with voters in the 2024 elections?
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    Why didn’t the economy help Kamala Harris with voters in the 2024 elections?

    Harry Posted on

    6 minute read

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    For New Jersey, it was June 2023; Inflation had reached its lowest level in almost two years, after reaching the lowest level in 2020. 40 year high. Things are starting to get better, right?

    Well, Shoppers across North Jersey At that time, they were still struggling to make ends meet because prices were still not falling.

    And it’s a feeling that has stubbornly persisted ever since.

    Going into the presidential election, The economy was doing great – at least on paper.

    Inflation was easing. The stock market was hot and national GDP increased. As we move towards the current fall season and Election Day, Gasoline prices were under $3 per gallon In New Jersey, the state’s unemployment rate remained steady after nearly doubling in a year.

    Story continues below photo gallery

    Well, in the face of an improving economic situation, Donald Trump managed to stunned the nation by winning both the popular vote and the electoral college against Vice President Kamala Harris; Trump’s fellow Republicans have clinched control of the US Senate and likely the House of Representatives. Representatives?

    “The U.S. economy is the envy of the world,” said Rutgers Business School finance professor Parul Jain. “Why didn’t this message reach voters?”

    “There is always a big gap between objective economic indicators and public opinion about the economy,” said Daniel Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University in Teaneck and director of the FDU Poll. “The public’s opinion about the economy is much more important.”

    Sure, inflation in North Jersey rose from 6.7% in June 2022 to 3.8% in September 2024, but Cassino said “that won’t matter as long as people pay $6 for butter.”

    Large-scale economic factors — the stock market and slowing inflation — don’t tell the whole story when it comes to one’s personal finances, said Tom Bracken, president of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce.

    Democrats’ marketing efforts fell short

    Democrats, including Gov. Phil Murphy, have admitted as much as the party struggles to come to terms with major losses that have seen its state strongholds shift significantly to the right.

    “This is clearly economic, kitchen table issues,” he said during a meeting. post election press conference On November 6. “This is migration. Whatever the facts are, it’s probably crime and public safety,” Murphy said. “And now it’s time to look in the mirror and make sure the content is changed if it needs to be changed or changes the way we communicate what we stand for.”

    Jain of Rutgers said that despite any success the Biden administration has had in reducing inflation, stimulating the economy or bringing manufacturing back to the United States, marketing efforts by the White House and Democrats have fallen short.

    “Everybody’s asking, ‘What is Bidenomics?’ he thought. It has open borders, it allows immigrants to run the country,'” Jain said. “A lot of this, of course, has been greatly exaggerated by the Trump campaign.”

    “They made their point with the message, ‘Your situation is actually worse, the United States is in shambles, and things are not looking good for you unless you involve me,'” he said.

    As Biden’s campaign against Trump continues, The President parted ways With the slogan “Bidenomics”.

    Inflation: Prices aren’t falling, they’re just rising more slowly

    In short, inflation is the rate of increase in prices.

    Jeffrey Otteau, chief economist at Matawan-based Otteau Group Inc., said slowing inflation does not mean falling prices. It just means costs won’t increase as quickly.

    “Even though inflation is rising at a slower pace, you’re still out of luck when a dozen eggs went from $3 to $7 and now instead of going up another dollar, it’s only up 10 cents,” he said.

    From a housing perspective, the median sales price of the average single-family home in the New York metro area increased by 8.2%. September 2023 – September 2024According to the National Association of Realtors. Between September 2018 and September 2019However, this figure was only 2.8%.

    And as October marks the 12th consecutive month As housing inventory growth surges across the country (29.2% more active home sales than this time last year and the most active home sales since December 2019), struggles over adequate housing supply continue to drive up home prices in many markets across the country. it does .

    “Housing arbitrators exist mostly at the state and local levels, so any federal intervention to increase the supply of housing — whether market or below-market-rate housing — needs to work collaboratively with those arbitrators to further unclog the housing construction pipeline,” he said. Ralph McLaughlin is senior economist for Realtor.com.

    And despite the Federal Reserve lower interest rates Interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages, which increased by 0.5% in September, have remained in the 6.31% to 7.5% range over the past few months.

    McLaughlin said he is tempering expectations for a big drop in mortgage rates in 2025 because of lower taxes, higher economic growth and the possibility of increases in the cost of some goods heading into the next presidency.

    “This means home buyers won’t get as big mortgage rate cuts next year as they were hoping for, perhaps before the election,” he said. “However, increased affordability may also come indirectly through rising incomes that outpace price growth.”

    Trump has proposed policies such as reducing regulatory barriers, freeing up federal lands for redevelopment, reducing immigration, and tariffs on foreign goods; all of which can have a direct or indirect impact on housing and other economic concerns.

    McLaughlin said it’s too early to know how these proposed policies will affect things like housing or the cost of basic needs, especially since some of these policies will likely work in opposition to each other.

    How did inflation get so high?

    At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 21 million people lost their jobs over a six-week period due to travel restrictions and widespread business closures.

    “The federal government looked at this and realized that our economy was on the verge of complete economic collapse,” Otteau said.

    And so the solution was a level of government stimulus unprecedented under the Trump and then Biden presidencies: expanded unemployment to Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses, mortgage forbearance programs Under Trump and Biden and employee retention loans.

    “We know in retrospect that the federal government did too much because there was no playbook for it,” Otteau said.

    “Businesses, employees, workers and households had too much money in their hands,” he said. “As a result, spending skyrocketed—both corporate and individual spending. And this caused cascading inflation, which caused prices for goods and services to rise faster than wage increases.”

    Bracken, of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce, said that when it comes to their personal finances, people just want better.

    “I think they felt like things were going to continue that way under the Biden-Harris administration, so they wanted a change to give themselves a chance to make things better,” Bracken said.

    The economy collapsed in the run-up to the election

    What was the general economic picture of New Jersey before the elections on November 5? We looked at these key metrics from across North Jersey to get an idea:

    Economic indicators

    • Inflation/Consumer Price Index: 4%
    • Unemployment rate: 4.8%
    • Average annual income: $76,128
    • State GDP: $806 billion

    Housing cost in October:

    • Bergen County: $779,500 median home price
    • Passaic County: $549,333 median home price
    • Morris County: $738,422 median home price
    • Essex County: $571,000 median home price
    • Sussex County: $427,500 median house price
    • Rent: $1,739 per month nationwide and $2,267 in New Jersey, according to RentCafe
    • 30-year mortgage: 6.79%

    Goods basket:

    • Dozen eggs: $3.82
    • Gallon of whole milk: $4.02
    • Ground beef per pound: $5.67
    • Health care: $659 per month for an employer-sponsored plan
    • Electricity: $20.67 per kilowatt hour
    • Clothing: Men’s shirt, $34.31; Women’s pants are $49.43, men’s jeans are $26.97

    public transportation

    • Used car: $25,361
    • New car: $47,218
    • Gasoline: $3.10 a gallon

    This article contains material from USA Today.

    Maddie McGay real estate reporter NorthJersey.com and The Record covers everything worth celebrating about living in North Jersey. find it Instagram @maddiemcgay, Open @maddiemcgayyand register in his name Life in North Jersey bulletin. Do you have a must-know tip, trend, or great home? Email him/her [email protected].

    Daniel Munoz covers business, consumer affairs, workforce and economics for NorthJersey.com and The Record.

    Email: [email protected]; On Twitter:@danielmunoz100 And Facebook

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