bigrus

Tropical Storm Sara may form and become a hurricane

Harry November 14, 2024

A new storm could hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane in the middle of next week. The latest blow in the continuous Atlantic hurricane season cost the lives of at least 326 people and $120 billion damage

Some forecast models say the storm, to be called Sara, will have wind speeds exceeding 181 mph and bring catastrophic flooding and storm watches to Central America by this weekend. Five hurricanes have already made landfall on the Gulf Coast this hurricane season.

National Hurricane Center forecasters say the storm is now a “Potential Tropical Cyclone 18.” tropical wave We’re heading west in the Caribbean. The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday.

The hurricane center said at 4 p.m. Wednesday that the system was located about 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja in Honduras. The government of Honduras issued a hurricane watch, while Nicaragua issued a tropical storm watch.

The hurricane center said the storm was expected to drop 30 inches of rain in northern Honduras.

In the center’s 4 p.m. update, some computer models show that Sara could become a major hurricane threatening the Florida coast, but it is too early to determine what effects the system could have on the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Cuba. .

The center’s initial forecasts predict that a tropical storm will form near the coast of Honduras on Friday, which may persist as a tropical storm for several days and then reach Belize on Monday. Heavy rains are expected in Jamaica next day and in Central America early next week.

AccuWeather, a private weather service, said in its forecast Wednesday afternoon that it expected the storm to become a Category 3 hurricane by the weekend.

“AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for life-threatening, catastrophic flooding in parts of Central America, particularly near the steep terrain of Honduras and Nicaragua,” Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said in the forecast. “These communities are tragically vulnerable to major flooding in this region in modern times, including Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which tragically claimed the lives of more than 11,000 people, and devastating flooding from Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020.” , is particularly vulnerable to flooding.”

The storm’s interaction with other weather conditions in Central America and the surrounding area will determine the system’s ultimate intensity and destination. The center noted that average forecast tracking uncertainty is greater than normal because the system is still forming without a well-defined center.

Michael Lowry, hurricane expert and storm surge expert at WPLG-TV in South Florida, wrote in his daily update that the storm could strengthen early next week, taking advantage of “some unusually favorable late-season conditions.” Tuesday.

Water temperatures in the Caribbean are warmer than normal, but temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were record high this week. ocean heat content charts It is held by Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the Rosenstiel School at the University of Miami. Warm water helps fuel hurricanes.

Lowry and other meteorologists say two important issues will determine whether this disturbance will threaten the United States. By the beginning of next week, the system is expected to begin slowly moving northwestward, but once it makes a full turn it could make a difference in both the strength and location of the system.

“If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the Western Caribbean, its track is likely to be greatly influenced by the location of the high pressure dome off the south Atlantic coast of the United States,” AccuWeather said Tuesday. he said.

For now, the chaotic nature of the model tracks indicates “high uncertainty” in the forecasts, Lowry said. If the storm passes over Central America or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the interaction could weaken it. However, if it remains offshore in the Caribbean, the chances of strengthening will increase and it will be directed towards the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, he said.

According to the website, given environmental conditions in the area, several models used to predict potential intensity suggest a potential hurricane could reach Category 3 status with winds of more than 181 mph, and one model suggests it could reach Category 4 status Tropicaltidbits.com is run by meteorologist Levi Cowan.

If a sixth hurricane makes landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, it would break the record for most landfalls on the U.S. Gulf Coast in a single season, set in 1886, McNoldy posted on social media Tuesday. At five so far this season, 2024 is tied with 2005 and 2020 for the second-most hurricane landfalls in the Gulf in a single season on record.

November tornadoes are quite unusual. There have only been three previous hurricanes to impact the United States or make landfall in November, each in 1861 and 1935, and Hurricane Kate in 1985. According to NOAA records.

Hurricanes, heat, snow and wildfire: become a member For USA TODAY’s Climate Point newsletter.

A busy 2024 hurricane season

Since meteorologists began observing hurricanes via satellites in 1966, 2024 is the 11th most active season so far, based on the number of hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. The hurricane energy index calculates a season’s total energy based on the frequency of storms and the maximum wind speed over the lifetime of each hurricane.

Among the more active seasons were 2005 and 2020, two years when the hurricane center moved off the initial list and onto the reserve list, according to Klotzbach. This century has seen seven of the most active seasons.

The 2024 season matched both NOAA’s and Colorado State University’s preseason forecasts for hurricanes and major hurricanes quite closely. Only named storms fall below these seasonal outlooks. Although the season started off busy, including record-breaking Beryl, a recession in August surprised forecasters, but 12 named storms have developed since the beginning of September.