BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – So far, the fate of Indiana’s College Football Playoff seeding has matched the path set for them by the Associated Press’ Top 25 voters. That means the Hoosiers could call home sweet home in the College Football Playoff.

Two days after Indiana rose to No. 5 in the AP Top 25, the Hoosiers earned the same spot in the College Football Playoff rankings.

It changed the Hoosiers’ calculus a bit. With the top four champions in the conference bidding farewell to the quarterfinals, Indiana will be ranked 7th in the College Football Playoff rankings. This means the Hoosiers will host a game against Alabama, which is currently ranked No. 9 but is ranked No. 10.

Of course, Indiana’s goal is to get to the Big Ten championship game and have a chance to earn the bye and become the No. 1 overall seed.

But a nice consolation prize would be hosting a play-off game on home soil.

We will focus on this as we examine the remaining season scenarios for the Hoosiers.

If Indiana Wins All Remaining Games

• Nothing has changed compared to last week. Indiana won’t be able to play at home, but it will get a much bigger prize. The Hoosiers would take this valuable bye to the quarterfinals as Big Ten champions.

Assuming the Hoosiers play current No. 1 seed Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, Indiana could beat both Ohio State and Oregon.

Unbeaten Indiana will be the No. 1 team in the country and the top seed in the College Football Playoff if this plays out. It is also possible that Indiana will play its quarterfinal game in the Rose Bowl. For Indiana, the Cinderella story would come to life.

What If Indiana Goes 2-0 in the Regular Season But Loses the Big Ten Championship Game

• Will Indiana field but still host? This will depend on what happens elsewhere, but it won’t be outside the realm of possibility.

The Hoosiers would get a high-quality win on the road at Ohio State on November 23. Their only loss would be to Oregon. As one-loss teams go, this is a tough resume to top.

Indiana’s hosting odds will depend on how the teams around them in the CFP rankings — No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Penn State, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 10 Alabama — who are not top-seeded in their conferences have finished their seasons.

Penn State and Notre Dame are the teams most likely to lead in their remaining games, but will they have the resume to get past Indiana at this point, beating Ohio State and losing to Oregon? Maybe Notre Dame could, but probably not Penn State.

In the SEC, Texas still has to play at Texas A&M and Tennessee has to play at Georgia. Alabama’s road is easier, but the road game at Oklahoma is at least somewhat challenging.

One factor that could hurt Indiana in terms of hosting a game is whether or not there will be an upset in the SEC championship game, depending on which combination of teams will be in that game.

There are eight teams still mathematically alive in this game. Right now, Tennessee and the winner of the Texas-Texas A&M game have the clearest path, but it’s by no means simple. Three SEC teams will be eliminated from this chase on Saturday and the picture will turn from muddy to cloudy.

The Longhorns’ loss at Texas A&M would help the Hoosiers’ case, as Texas is ahead of Indiana in the current rankings.

If Indiana Loses at Ohio State and Misses a Big Ten Championship

• Is it about hosting a play? This will likely depend on the nature of Indiana’s loss to Ohio State.

What if the Hoosiers lose a close game against the Buckeyes and none of the teams closest to them in the polls do anything impressive? The Hoosiers probably won’t fall much or at all.

What if the Hoosiers are defeated by the Buckeyes? Indiana will take a hit in the CFP standings that will jeopardize its playoff hopes, let alone hosting the playoffs.

Witness how the committee treated Georgia this week. Following the Bulldogs’ 28-10 loss at Ole Miss, Georgia dropped from No. 3 to No. 12 and was eliminated from the field as the fifth-best conference champion (No. 13 Boise State) received an automatic bid.

A 10-15 point loss for the Hoosiers? Indiana will likely remain in the CFP rankings, but hosting a game will depend on what happens to the teams around them in the rankings and how conference championship games are played elsewhere.

If Indiana Loses at Ohio State But Still Makes the Big Ten Championship Game

• If Indiana loses at Ohio State, the Hoosiers will need a lot of help to get to the Big Ten title game.

As reported a week ago, a path to the Big Ten championship game may be charted, but it’s a rocky road that will require a fair share of divine intervention.

Ohio State would need to forfeit an additional game between: Northwestern at Wrigley Field (that game is Saturday, so it will be played before Indiana’s trip to Columbus) or Michigan at home. It’s a good path for the Buckeyes.

If the Buckeyes lost another game, it would put Penn State back in a tiebreaker with the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers and Nittany Lions do not play head-to-head and share a loss against a common opponent (Ohio State), but Penn State’s stronger Big Ten schedule (the next tiebreaker) will give the Nittany Lions the advantage. Defeated the Hoosiers in a head-to-head tiebreaker.

So Penn State will have to lose one more game. Penn State plays at Purdue in Minnesota and ends the game with a home game against Maryland. The Golden Gophers matchup is where Penn State will be most vulnerable, but Penn State will be favored.

Oregon could also lose both games to open a path for the Hoosiers, but that’s unlikely. The Ducks play at Wisconsin and finish at home against Washington. Neither team is easy, but they are not strong either.

Are you still here?

If all of this had somehow happened and the Hoosiers were playing in Indianapolis on December 7, it would have given Indiana a chance to secure the Big Ten’s automatic berth, but also risk playoff elimination if the Hoosiers lost the championship game. would come with it. .

A two-loss Indiana team will have trouble making the CFP, even with those losses to Ohio State and possibly Oregon. Both losses in this scenario would need to be close for the Hoosiers to give the committee something to go on and keep Indiana ranked high enough to become a two-loss team. This will also depend on friendly outcomes elsewhere.

If Indiana loses to Ohio State, the less risky but less likely reward path is to avoid the Big Ten championship game altogether and maintain one-loss status.

If Indiana Loses to Ohio State and Purdue

• Hopes that Indiana’s CFP hopes will be over. There are plenty of teams that will have at least two losses, and none of them will have a loss as damaging as a home defeat to a one-win Purdue team. Indiana would go to the bowl, most likely the Citrus or Reliaquest Bowl.

Fortunately for the Hoosiers, that’s a distant scenario.