A.African leaders may have acted quickly Congratulations to Donald Trump Open his choiceHe expresses a desire for mutually beneficial partnerships, but expectations that his presidency will change things for this continent of more than 1.4 billion people are scant.

After Trump’s win, Kenya’s William Ruto said his country was “ready” to deepen ties with Washington. Nigerian Bola Tinubu said a second Trump administration would usher in an era of “serious, beneficial and reciprocal” cooperation.

Still, observers say African countries, which Trump once described as “shithole countries,” certainly won’t be high on his to-do list.

Read more: How Is Asia Preparing for Trump’s Second Term?

Is it low priority or not even a concern?

U.S. foreign policy has long failed to make Africa a priority, beyond viewing the continent through the lens of rival rivals such as Russia and China, said Charles Ray, director of the Africa Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Ray, who served as the US ambassador to Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2012, said President Joe Biden has mentioned Africa as a key partner.

However, there was not much action after these words.

Ray added that Africa “will be at the bottom of (Trump’s) list of priorities” and that any US action on the continent will likely be driven by his “transactional, ego-driven leadership style.”

Many experts agree with this view, citing Trump’s “America First” strategy.

Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa program director, says the president-elect “is a determined isolationist and clearly wants to pull back on a number of fronts around the world.”

Some say there are deals to be made even in Africa

J. Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to Africa’s Great Lakes and Sahel regions, says the next Trump presidency could seek a “win-win” situation in Africa.

This could include renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which gives eligible African countries duty-free access to U.S. markets, Pham said on the Voice of America broadcast.

But Pham said U.S. lawmakers have raised questions about whether African countries are complying with conditions under the program or whether it would harm U.S. foreign policy interests and national security.

South Africa, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the program, was accused by US Ambassador Reuben Brigety in 2023 of providing weapons and ammunition to Russia for its war in Ukraine, and its stated neutral stance regarding the war was questioned.

Pham basically said that you shouldn’t “kick America in the teeth” in a way that raises questions about compliance with such agreements.

Those who do so “will be treated as pariahs,” said Ray of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Africa’s myriad health and other crises, abortion and LGBTQ+ rights

The biggest concern is that the next Trump presidency will cut funding. In many parts of Africa, such cuts could be critical for millions of girls and young women whose reproductive health and choices are largely supported by U.S.-funded programs.

“The situation for girls is already bad (and) without these services it will become a disaster,” said Valentine Damitoni, a mother of 18 years old.

She regularly visits a local clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, to get birth control under a US-funded program that allows her to return to school without fear of getting pregnant again.

Max Primorac, a former deputy administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, one of Africa’s largest development aid donors, criticized some of the agency’s programs. Project 2025A 900-page plan to reshape the federal government proposed by the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation.

Primorac specifically criticized USAID programs that “promote abortion, climate extremism, and interventions against perceived systemic racism.” The document is said to be closely aligned with Trump’s vision – although Trump has moved away from it.

Kiron Skinner, who was head of policy planning at the US State Department during Trump’s first term in office, recommends in the document that America should “focus on basic security, economics and human rights” rather than imposing “radical abortion and provocative practices” in Africa. -LGBT initiatives.”

New regulations in Africa are directed towards Russia and China

In Africa’s volatile Sahel region, soldiers are increasingly deposing elected Presidents and using anti-Western sentiment to sever ties with long-time allies like the United States and France; On the other hand, they are turning to a new friend: Russia.

China, which provides infrastructure loans to African countries within the framework of mutually beneficial cooperation, rarely intervenes in the domestic policies of recipient countries. Russia, the continent’s largest arms supplier, often agrees with Africa’s military juntas.

Both countries, especially America, show great interest in Africa’s rich mineral resources.

Crisis Group’s Mutiga says “the historical problem was that the US and the West saw Africa as a problem to be solved.” China and others “saw this as an opportunity to seize.”

Will Trump back down on Biden’s promises?

The Biden administration announced last December that it had invested at least 22 billion dollars in Africa and promised to do more. During his first term, Trump repeatedly sought to cut foreign affairs funding, sometimes by as much as 30%.

Analysts are concerned about whether key US projects in health, security and development will be implemented under the Trump administration, especially at a time when hunger is worsening in Africa and threats to democracy are rising again.

For many ordinary Africans, Trump is nothing more than a distant leader who cannot do much about their day-to-day problems.

“Trump will not save us from hunger caused by our government,” said Isah Mohammed, a fruit seller in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital.

Africa’s flashpoints, from Western Sahara to Somalia

Many in Morocco rejoiced after Trump’s victory and hoped his return to office would help advance the North African country’s push for global recognition of its sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara.

“The return of Morocco’s friend to the White House,” the country’s Assabah newspaper declared in its editorial.

As part of a larger deal that also included Morocco normalizing ties with Israel, Trump changed long-standing US policy and recognized Morocco’s sovereignty claims before leaving office in 2020.

Biden did not reverse that decision, but he also did not hold up to the Trump administration’s promise to establish a consulate in the disputed region.

Stability in the Horn of Africa is increasingly threatened by violent war in Sudan and rising tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over a business deal with Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland.

Rashid Abdi, an analyst at the Nairobi-based think tank Sahan Research, predicts that Trump will likely cut funding to Somalia and engage more with Somaliland.

What’s stopping Africa’s progress? Maybe Africa itself

The G20, the group of the world’s leading economies, welcomed the African Union as a permanent member last year; It was a strong acknowledgment from the continent’s 50-plus countries and, as Biden said, “a long time coming.”

But despite this step on the global stage, observers say the union and its leaders have failed to live up to expectations, failing to articulate their interests and table their demands as a united front.

“The question often becomes: What will Washington do, but what is actually in Africa’s interest?” said Mutiga from Crisis Group.

“We are in an era of transactional global relations, and unless Africa can act in a way that expresses its own interests, America’s (interests in Africa) will continue to be determined by geopolitical competition with its rivals,” he said.

—Chinedu Asadu reported from Abuja, Nigeria. Associated Press reporters Farai Mutsaka in Harare, Zimbabwe and Sam Metz in Rabat, Morocco contributed to this report.