In the final days of the presidential election, President-elect Donald Trump never missed a chance to pin his opponent on California. This was a criticism that did not require elaboration; While true to form, Trump did not shy away from offering an overly heated critique. At the Madison Square Garden rally in October declared That Vice President Kamala Harris is a “radical left lunatic” who is “destroying California.”

Despite the breathless rhetoric, the fact that California (the state most associated with party leadership) is now synonymous with the top-tier state poses a problem for national Democrats’ ambitions. problem Consequences of the election: rising cost of living.

For the first time in the recent past, housing costs appeared is seen as an important presidential election issue. (Experts to accept That’s the last major driver of inflation.) And Harris I promised Overseeing the construction of 3 million homes during his tenure wasn’t enough to shake the stigma in California.

As of 2024, California has the most expensive housing among states in the continental United States, with a median home price of more than eight times the state’s median household income. (A healthy ratio is considered to be three to five times the state’s median income. In Texas, the ratio is four.) As a result, working- and middle-class Californians have virtually no path to homeownership.

Half of California renters who miss out on homeownership spend at least a third of their income on rent (up to 50 percent for many). And they’re the lucky ones: About 200,000 Californians and counting homeless people.

On some level, Democrats understand that government is a problem. Ask a progressive in a swing state like North Carolina or Wisconsin what he thinks of California; He or she will probably try to change the subject of the conversation. (Can you imagine a conservative having the same reluctance about Texas?)

Where millions of Americans (myself included) once knew California as a place where friends and family would go and get their share of dreams, today the Golden State is even better known as a source of angry immigrants offering cash to homes.

Over the last 25 years, hundreds of thousands of people have voted with their feet and left the state. Slow population growth in the 2010s caused California to lose its congressional seat after reapportionment in 2020. (Net red states received three seats in that election.) As immigration decreased, the state began to lose population for the first time in its history.

An estimated 102,000 Californians in 2022 alone affected To Texas. They weren’t running away from perfect weather or high-paying jobs; They were generally excluded because of the high cost of living.

California’s progressive NIMBYs occasionally celebrate this unhappy exodus as a way to turn other Mountain West states blue. But this year, Nevada voted for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time in 20 years. Even before the election, polls deemed Arizona a lost cause for Democrats.

It turns out that forcing people to leave their home state in search of affordable housing doesn’t exactly breed party loyalty. In fact, it can have the opposite effect: Surveys Outside of states like Texas, newcomers from California are actually More More conservative than the locals.

Of course, Kamala Harris is not the reason for the housing crisis in California. In fact, Democrats are not the only ones to blame; reconstruction This law, which made it illegal to build housing in California, was supported by NIMBYs on the left and right, and it was Republican Governor Ronald Reagan who signed the state’s bill. infamous the environmental review law becomes law.

But the state has been under majority Democratic control since 2011. They have effectively led the state since 1999, except for the unusual case of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a moderate Republican who endorsed Harris for president. Undecided voters can be forgiven for their curiosity. Why has this problem gotten worse under a quarter-century of Democratic rule?

Immediately after the election, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has made no secret of his presidential ambitions, called for a special session to consider how California would respond to the Trump administration’s expected attacks on reproductive rights, immigrants and the state’s climate policies. . The statement makes no mention of the cost-of-living issues that likely tipped the election to Trump.

there is one Small However is growing squad pro-housing Democratic state legislators taking up the cause of cutting through red tape and rebuilding in California. And they have had some success: since 2017 the state legalized granny flats, removed parking instructions and aerodynamic it allows. But often reform efforts blocked by members of his own party

It’s too late for Kamala Harris. But the next Democratic presidential candidate had better hope these reformers succeed.