close
close

Semainede4jours

Real-time news, timeless knowledge

Investors expect a rapid march to 0k as governments move to enter the market
bigrus

Investors expect a rapid march to $100k as governments move to enter the market

FOMO is back. Since Donald Trump’s election last Tuesday, Bitcoin prices have been rising; Including a wild rally on Monday that saw the leading cryptocurrency flirt with $90,000, a milestone that seemed unthinkable just two years ago amid FTX’s collapse. On Monday, Bitcoin became the world’s eighth most valuable asset. outshining silver.

While $100,000 is now within reach, a crypto-friendly presidential administration and an influx of institutional money could mean the rally is just getting started, professional traders say.

“The market is realizing what a massive regime change is underway,” said crypto hedge fund founder Quinn Thompson Lekker Capitalsaid Luck. “The US government and regulators, the world’s most powerful entities, are now moving from an anti-crypto stance to embracing it.”

View this interactive chart on Fortune.com

Political sea change

The crypto industry has faced a tough year ahead, with the collapse of major companies from FTX to Terraform Labs leading to a long crypto winter and a barrage of lawsuits and criminal charges from the US government. while lunch While the rise of Bitcoin ETFs in January spurred a year-long rally, the uncertain regulatory environment leading up to the presidential election kept institutional and retail money out of markets.

Trump promised a different future for crypto during his campaign. While the former president criticized digital assets during his first term, he embraced the blockchain industry in his second term, appealing to donors and mocking projects such as a strategic Bitcoin reserve where the government would cache the cryptocurrency. He also promised to provide pro-crypto views to regulators, which would be a big change from figures like the SEC chairman. Gary Genslersomeone trying to reign in the industry.

Even before the AP officially called the election for Trump early Wednesday morning, crypto markets had rallied on the assumption that Trump would win; This includes breaking $70,000 the previous week. Since Wednesday, Bitcoin has reached a high near $90,000 on Tuesday, breaking $80,000 on Sunday.

“Last week, from a political perspective, we witnessed a re-emergence of the need for people to pay attention to crypto,” said Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of crypto hedge fund Split Capital. “Not only is this a big winner of the year, it has become almost a legitimized industry through the government.”

This political embrace may be just beginning, especially as Trump begins to assemble a team of cabinet officials and advisers around himself. The head of the transition is Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, a crypto supporter who serves as the primary custodian of leading stablecoin Tether. Sources familiar with the transition also mentioned potential crypto-friendly picks at the SEC, including Robinhood chief legal officer Dan Gallager and former CFTC commissioner and self-described “CryptoDad” Christopher Giancarlo.

smart money

Speculation has increased on crypto Twitter about whether the arrival of institutional money, or even government money, is fueling the rise. Thompson cited the “staggering” size of ETF inflows, saying institutional interest from university endowments, pension funds and hedge funds was a major factor. Ebtikar agreed, arguing that bidding on prices was mechanical rather than random.

While the change in US approach could create a stampede, the question of whether governments are also buying Bitcoin is more difficult to answer. “The potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve could motivate other nation states around the world to consider the idea,” Thompson said.

The flow of once-timid institutional money into crypto could also create a feedback loop, as capital allocators now must face questions from investment committees about how they approach the newly legitimized asset class. “Not only are prices increasing, but they are also increasing for a very important reason,” Ebtikar said.

According to Joshua Lim, co-founder of the crypto trading platform arbelosBitcoin is now in price discovery After breaking its all-time high, it has moved out of its normal price range, causing investors to re-evaluate. While institutional money is driving the current rally, retail is likely not far behind.

Lim said Luck Extreme behavior appears to be starting to emerge, including highly leveraged retail trading leading to liquidation cascades both upstream and downstream, as well as flows into risky crypto sectors such as AI memecoins. Permanent swap funding rates, a benchmark for assessing demand, are as high as 40-60% compared to an average of 5-10%, reflecting much higher participation rates.

It’s anyone’s guess that Bitcoin has finally reached the legendary $100,000 mark, but Thompson is optimistic it will happen soon. “I feel good that we achieved this goal by the end of the year,” he said. Luck. “It’s very possible by the end of the month, but we’ll see.”

This story first appeared on: Fortune.com