Claim:

A map circulating on social media in early November 2024 depicted the hypothetical results of the 2024 US presidential election if only women had voted.

Evaluation:

Context

The map was created ahead of Election Day 2024 as a prediction of how women might vote.

A map in early November 2024 radiate Social media allegedly depicts the results of the US presidential election held on November 5, 2024, if only women had voted. The map, which shows most states in blue, indicates a strong Democratic preference in this scenario. According to the map, in this scenario, Vice President Kamala Harris would receive 413 delegate votes, while former President Donald Trump would receive 122 votes.

a popular to post (archived) As of November 7, the map has garnered more than 23.2 million views, 464,000 likes and 33,000 shares, adding, “Someone on TikTok looked at voting demographics and this is just a map of whether women vote or not.”

(X user @admirephil)

“This is what it was supposed to look like for Kamala,” said one X user commentedthe other is wrote“That’s why women weren’t allowed to vote. They made stupid decisions based on emotional impulses.”

The map went viral on various social media platforms. Topics, Facebook And imgur.

However, the map was created and shared in mid-October 2024 to represent the elections. predictions rather than actual results. Therefore, we evaluated this claim as an incorrect title.

Origin of the Map

The map was: originally posted It was posted by TikTok user @politicalens on October 16, 2024, and has garnered 7.7 million views, 1.1 million likes, and 101,000 shares as of this writing. This means the map was shared long before Election Day, November 5, and the election results were announced.

The statement added to the video stated that this was a prediction, not the actual election results:

#If ONLY WOMEN vote in the 2024 Election How will YOUR state (probably) vote? We’ll see in November!

The video included a disclaimer stating “sources are listed in my own.” Linktree biography. All data It is derived from the latest available surveys and analyzed alongside historical trends, voter registration statistics, turnout estimates, and existing demographic surveys. “These predictions are not guaranteed to be 100% accurate and never will be.”

We have reached out to the original poster of the map and will update this article if we hear back.

How Did Women Actually Vote?

Accordingly AP VotingHarris had an advantage among female voters nationwide, winning 53% of the vote compared to Trump’s 46%. However, as of this writing, Associated Press was not released State-by-state voting data broken down by gender.

Exit survey incoming data Washington Post, shared On November 6, he offered additional information on how men and women voted both nationally and in key states.

(Washington Post)

According to the exit poll, 53 percent of women nationwide voted for Harris, while 45 percent voted for Trump. This pattern was also reflected in several swing states where Harris reportedly received more support from female voters. For example, Harris’ support among women in Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin ranged from 54% to 55%, while Trump’s support ranged from 43% to 45%. But in Arizona, there was a nearly even split among female voters; 49 percent for Harris and 50 percent for Trump.

Similar 2016 and 2020 Maps

Similar maps have circulated after previous US presidential elections, especially 2016 and 2020It shows the hypothetical results that would occur if only women had voted. Author and statistician Nate Silver in 2016 was created The first such viral map shows the hypothetical US presidential election outcome if only women voted. He noted that the map was “based solely on FiveThirtyEight’s poll predictions,” which predicted Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump in such a scenario.

Silver to create the map corrected It increased Clinton’s vote margin by adding 10 points to her performance in each state, based on her voting advantage among women compared to voters overall. This approach resulted in a huge loss of votes for Clinton, with 458 delegate votes to Trump’s 80.

For further reading we have investigated A red and blue colored map purporting to show individual county results in the 2024 US presidential election.