UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Myanmar’s Rakhine state, Rohingya minority This country, caught in the middle of conflict between government forces and a powerful ethnic group, could soon face an acute famine, the United Nations Development Agency warned in a new report.

The UN Development Program said in a report released on Thursday that a “perfect storm is brewing” that is pushing western Rakhine “to the brink of an unprecedented disaster”.

He pointed to a chain of interconnected developments, including restrictions on goods from other parts of the world. Myanmar and in neighboring Bangladesh, residents’ lack of income, high inflation, significantly reduced food production, and lack of basic services and a social safety net.

As a result, UNDP said, “an already highly vulnerable population could be on the brink of collapse in the coming months.”

Buddhist-majority Myanmar has long viewed its Rohingya Muslim minority as “Bengalis” from Bangladesh, even though their families have lived in the country for generations. Almost all of them have been denied citizenship since 1982.

In August 2017, attacks by a Rohingya rebel group on Myanmar security personnel triggered a brutal campaign by the military that drove at least 740,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh. The army is accused of gang rape, murder and burning thousands of houses.

Since then Myanmar army takes over in 2021 Pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic minority armed forces from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government trying to overthrow the army from power.

Last November, the Arakan Army, which sought autonomy from the central government of Myanmar, launched an attack against the army in Arakan and took control of more than half of its districts. The Arakan Army, the well-armed wing of the Rakhine ethnic minority movement, is also a member of an alliance of armed ethnic groups trying to oust the army.

“The functioning of Rakhine’s economy has stalled, with critical sectors such as trade, agriculture and construction coming to a near standstill,” the UNDP report said, based on data collected by the agency in 2023 and 2024.

UNDP said that while domestic and foreign markets have become inaccessible due to blockades, people’s incomes have collapsed because they cannot export, and agricultural jobs have also disappeared for the same reason.

In addition, it was stated that cement imports stopped, which led to “exorbitant price increases” and led to the closure of the construction sector, an important employer.

The report titled “Rakhine: A Famine in the Making” stated that “Rakhine may face a severe famine in the near future.”

“Estimates indicate that domestic food production will meet only 20% of the need by March-April 2025,” UNDP said.

“Rice production within the country is falling rapidly due to a lack of seeds and fertilizers, harsh weather conditions, a rapid increase in the number of internally displaced people who can engage in agriculture for longer periods of time, and increasing conflicts,” the UN agency said. “This will put more than 2 million people at risk of hunger, with domestic and foreign trade coming to a near-complete halt.”

UNDP called for immediate action to allow goods and humanitarian aid to enter Rakhine, ensure unimpeded access and safety of aid workers, and urgently provide financial resources to enable the agricultural sector to recover.

“Without urgent action, 95 percent of the population will revert to survival mode and be left to fend for themselves amid a massive decline in domestic production, skyrocketing prices, widespread unemployment and growing insecurity,” UNDP said. he warned.

“With trade routes closed and severe restrictions on aid, there is a risk that Rakhine will become a completely isolated region where people are suffering deeply,” the UN agency said.