Festival season is among us again. Twinkling lights, exotic food, heartfelt greetings, people flying from all over the world to be with family and friends, gifts and prizes, gala times, great conversations and promises to do better this year.

COP29, as in all its previous editions, guarantees all this and much more under the chairmanship of COP29 Presidential Candidate Muhtar Babayev.

The annual Christmas celebration in Baku, Azerbaijan aims to be different, as every COP before it has done. So will Climate Christmas really be different this year? In this article, let’s examine this possibility and what it means for Kenya and Africa.

Kenya’s contribution in Baku will become even more evident this year when it assumes the role of Chairman of the African Negotiating Group. The focus of the meeting is expected to be on securing climate finance for fellow Africans, advancing action to address loss and damage, and setting carbon market regulations.

Kenya estimates that around three to five percent of GDP will be lost annually due to climate disasters. Compensating the damage caused in this way will require strong negotiations in Baku. COP29 looks different from the usual COP noise; promises action. And not just action, but also increased ambition. Kenya’s potential claim to climate fame rests on capitalizing on these two pillars in Baku.

It should come as no surprise that the world is on the verge of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius target. But can this be avoided? Increasing countries’ climate targets could be a good start.

The New Collective Quantified Target (NCQG) for climate finance is being intensively discussed and is expected to be finalized in 2025. He hopes this target will be a definitive statement on the ambitious financial resources developing countries need to meet their climate change commitments. Consider their evolving needs.

This also confirms what Kenya has been advocating, the increasing ambitions of developed countries.

It is now more important than ever to ensure that climate action meets increasing targets. But climate action doesn’t come cheap.

What exactly will it cost?

According to the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, approximately $2,400 billion will be needed by 2030 to achieve climate targets. Although the question of ‘what’ climate finance is has been answered, the question of ‘who’ will finance it immediately comes to mind.

Hailed as the ‘COP on Finance’, COP29 leaders must find a way to rethink the wealthy’s current commitment of $100 billion each year, a target yet to be met. To achieve this, global leaders will need to put aside their differences, especially the glaring north-south divide on climate finance.

According to the NCQG, Africa needs approximately $1.3 trillion a year to address the climate crisis by 2030. A significant portion of this is needed for Kenya to combat climate-related disasters. As Kenya leads financing negotiations in Baku, it should return with commitments that the need will be met.

African countries and small island developing states, some of the most vulnerable, continue to be treated like underprivileged siblings at Christmas; They may have a seat at the table, but they are not in the conversation.

For these countries, climate risk is much more real, resources are few and support is woefully inadequate. The Loss and Damage fund currently under construction may be too small to meet the world’s needs.

Therefore, the private sector needs to see these countries as key developing markets and take action to design climate products that suit their needs. In recent years Kenya has been particularly vulnerable to recurring droughts.

It has begun to implement innovative policies and interventions to increase the country’s resilience to climate disasters. However, the financing problem to compensate for these losses continues.

What the world really needs is a climate miracle in Baku. Skepticism aside, COP29 should be unlike any other, and there are indications it could be so. Parties must understand that this may be the last year the world can afford without much action.

The Kenyan delegation, led by President William Ruto, needs to secure a few things: a clear and realistic desire from all parties, regardless of their economic and geographical status, and compatible financial commitments (preferably checks), especially from rich countries.
These may not differ significantly from previous COPs and commitments.

However, the following addition to the commitments could be critical for Kenya and Africa: Strict penalties for developed countries for missing climate and financial targets, making them accountable, accountable in action and transparent to ensure funds reach where they are most needed. It was needed. Maybe they could call it ‘Santa Claus’.

The author is Intellecap Energy and Climate Change Manager.