Global investor and author Ruchir Sharma, known for his sharp analysis of political and economic trends, has predicted that the voting patterns seen in the last parliamentary elections in Maharashtra will be repeated in the upcoming state polls as well. Sharma highlighted that Indian elections follow an often recurring trend, especially when state elections are held within six to twelve months of the Lok Sabha elections.

Speaking to India Today News Director Rahul Kanwal about the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Sharma highlighted: “An oft-repeated pattern emerges in Indian elections: when a state election is held within 6 to 12 months of the Lok Sabha polls, the same voting trends often follow state results.” It reflects.”

Sharma’s observations are drawn from historical election data. Referring to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, he pointed out that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance comprising Shiv Sena (UBT), Sharadchandra Pawar-led NCP faction and Congress won 31 out of 48 seats. He suggested that this result could indicate a similar performance in the upcoming Assembly elections.

When asked about the implications of the recent election results in Haryana for Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Sharma noted that although momentum and public opinion may imply certain outcomes, every state election in India is different. “I don’t believe in this theory of momentum. If momentum was the issue, then the BJP could never have won Haryana because momentum was so against it. Elections in India are different in nature; “Each state’s voting behavior is influenced by regional issues, regardless of national sentiment,” he said.

Sharma called the Haryana election “probably the strangest election result I have seen in India”. Stating that neither journalists nor party insiders predicted the outcome, he said, “None of the journalists who returned from Haryana said, ‘Hey, something different could happen.'” He added that even those within the BJP do not have the slightest sign of any unexpected change.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, Sharma predicted a close contest in Maharashtra with a 50/50 seat split. He stated that while the Maha Vikas Aghadi was gaining strength, the real losses were incurred by its BJP allies Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction and the Shiv Sena. Their predictions were largely confirmed as the Mahayuti alliance’s seat count fell from 41 to 17, the BJP’s from 23 to 9 and the Shiv Sena’s from 18 to 7.

Assembly elections in Maharashtra are scheduled to be held in a single phase on November 20.