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Election 2024: What’s Next for Immigration, Trump’s Criminal Cases, Justice Reform and More?
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Election 2024: What’s Next for Immigration, Trump’s Criminal Cases, Justice Reform and More?

This is The Marshall Project’s Closing Argument newsletter, a weekly in-depth look at an important criminal justice issue. Want this delivered to your inbox? Subscribe to future newsletters.

As the full picture of the results of the 2024 election begins to become clear, we bring you some important criminal justice takeaways from President-elect Donald Trump’s criminal cases, proposed immigration policies, criminal justice reform, and ubiquitous and misleading television ads. Transgender individuals in prisons.

Trump’s criminal cases are unlikely to move forward.

Trump’s victory “virtually guarantees that you will never face serious legal liabilityin any of four separate criminal cases in which he was indicted, Politico reported.

On Friday morning, special prosecutor Jack Smith requested a recess in the trial. Two federal lawsuits against Trump for his alleged concealment of secret documents and his role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection. It is the Justice Department’s long-standing policy that a sitting president cannot be tried and that cases cannot be concluded before Trump takes office. Trump said he would fire Smith as soon as he took office, but Smith is expected to resign before opening day. Smith may choose to publish their findings Before he goes, it remains to be seen whether Trump will seek legal ramifications for Smith’s leadership of the investigation. Trump said before That Smith should “go to jail” and be “kicked out of the country.”

In New York, where Trump was convicted earlier this year on multiple counts of falsifying business records. experts say Judge Juan Merchan probably Trump will not be sentenced on November 26 as currently planned. Even if he is punished, it will be postponed until he leaves office and it will be possible for this situation to continue. the courts will annul his conviction Because of presidential immunity.

A. A similar result is likely to happen in GeorgiaTrump and some of his allies are facing charges related to alleged efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results. has been stopped for a long time It is expected that he will be postponed until he leaves office or be dismissed on the same grounds.

But experts say Several pending civil lawsuits against Trump could theoretically proceed He points to a 1997 Supreme Court decision that authorized civil lawsuits against then-President Bill Clinton while he was in office.

People convicted of crimes related to the January 6 uprising are also waiting for their legal troubles to be resolved under the Trump administration. is “getting in line” for a presidential pardon. But in one case this week, a defendant sought a postponement of his sentence upon news of Trump’s election. the request was quickly rejected by the judge.

The backlash against criminal justice reform was evident, but that wasn’t the whole story.

california voters Approved Proposal 36Criminal penalties for some property and drug crimes in the state are being toughened. Measure taken the power of persistent fear and frustration about crime and disorderespecially viral cases of retail theft and the more visible homeless population and outdoor drug use – even real crime rates continue to fall. Effort largely aims to roll back reforms This law, approved by voters a decade ago, was intended to reduce the state’s prison population.

One analysis by the state’s nonpartisan fiscal advisor. It found that the change would likely lead to “several thousand” more people being imprisoned and cost just under “hundreds of millions” of dollars a year.

Cristine Soto DeBerry, executive director of Prosecutors Alliance Action, a progressive reform group, said in a statement that the passage was disappointing but not evidence that Californians were soured on reform. “It actually shows that Californians prefer policies that prioritize treatment and rehabilitation,” DeBarry said, pointing to an aspect of the law that requires people with multiple drug charges to complete treatment or serve time.

“Unfortunately, Proposition 36 will not provide the support it promises,” DeBerry continued. Reiterated this week by the Los Angeles Times editorial board.

In the state’s largest city, Los Angeles prosecutor George Gascón lost to Republican opponent Nathan Hochman. undoing its predecessor’s “social experiment” in progressive prosecutorial practices. Hochman made a good run to Gascón’s right but also promised to continue some of the reforms introduced by the officeincluding maintaining a conviction integrity unit to overturn old, flawed convictions.

This wasn’t all bad news for criminal justice reform advocates. Reformist prosecutors also Won races against rivals promising more punishing approaches In places like Lake County, Illinois; Oakland County, Michigan; and Albany County, New York. And Monique Worrell in Florida he got his job back After Gov. Ron DeSantis fired him last year, claiming he failed in his duty by choosing not to pursue some cases.

The remaining pro-reform prosecutors may face new political forces opposing them moving forward. Billionaire Elon Musk is now dead after financially backing Trump’s campaign, Houston Chronicle reports He stared at the prosecutors. So is Trump He promised to destroy in the second term, about what he called “radical Marxist prosecutors.”

Trump’s allies say planning has already begun for the promised immigration raid. Meanwhile, immigrants share mixed feelings about his victory.

Trump’s team is planning this Quickly deliver on promises to increase border control and start mass exile consists of undocumented immigrants. Senior advisors told CNN: Plans to start by reinstating border policies from Trump’s first termIt starts with the deportation of immigrants who commit crimes. They are also considering how and whether to proceed with the deportation of people brought to the U.S. as young children, commonly known as Dreamers. Trump’s advisers have expressed confidence that Americans will be willing to tolerate more extreme policies at the border than during Trump’s first presidency. Public attitude towards immigration. Meanwhile, immigration advocates are bracing themselves for a potential fight. avalanche of legal challenges to the Trump administration’s policy.

Detention of immigrants is mainly carried out by private companies, and the country’s two largest companies, CoreCivic and GeoGroup, have both seen their case. Stock prices have been on the rise since Election Day.

Some immigrants in New York City Expressed terror in response to Trump’s election and the increased likelihood of being deported to dangerous conditions in their home countries. Many members of the Haitian community in Springfield, Ohio, about whom Trump has spread false rumors, Now they are thinking about their own fate.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution spoke to many Latinos. Immigrants without permanent legal status happy with Trump victory. Some said they literally ignored Trump’s deportation threats, thought Kamala Harris was too left-wing, or believed Trump would be good for the economy. Some New York immigrants who have lived in the United States longer and are eligible to vote He shared similar sentiments with DocumentedNY.

NBC News reported this week that the Biden administration is preparing for a new election. The possibility of an increase in people coming from the border Migrants attempted to cross the border before Trump took office in January. Others may already be giving up. A group of nearly 3,000 migrants is traveling through Mexico toward the U.S. border, according to Reuters decreased by about half Since the announcement of the election results.

The Trump campaign has invested heavily in ads attacking Kamala Harris for her stance on gender-affirming care for transgender people in prisons and immigration detention.

In the months leading up to the election, television viewers across the country, especially football fans, saw hundreds of ads claiming “Kamala supports taxpayer-funded gender reassignments for prisoners.” an advertisement Posted a clip of Harris herself I was telling an interviewer that “every transgender inmate in the prison system will have access.”

Some are right wing commentators Now this ad “may have moved the needle toward Trump.” A Trump advisor he told the Washington Post “Trans issues and boys in girls sports, that whole issue is a hot topic at Trump rallies, but I was a little surprised that it was being pushed to Democrats and everyone else, including Black boys.”

As with most political ads, the reality is more nuanced than the ad claims. Prisons are required by law to provide medical care to incarcerated individuals. The Supreme Court said this prison authorities cannot show “deliberate indifference”faces serious risk of harm – and lower courts have repeatedly found that gender dysphoria is not adequately treated does exactly that. This said, transgender people make up a small portion The proportion of people held in federal prisons, the only prisons over which the president has authority, is about 1%, according to Bureau of Prisons data. Among them, the number of people seeking gender confirmation surgery is even smaller. The federal prison system has performed such surgery only twice; both under the Biden-Harris administration and only after a judge ordered the authorities to do this. Other gender-affirming care, such as hormone therapy, accounts for about 1 percent of the prison system’s health budget. office numbers – and it was also provided to federal prisoners Under the first Trump administration.

The irony here is that Harris framed the Trump ad as outrageous — stating that under her presidency “every transgender inmate in the prison system will have access” — like this: some kind of apology then to the trans community he argued against providing gender confirmation surgery to people imprisoned in California during his time as attorney general.