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ESPN’s FPI heavily favors Miami against Yellow Jackets
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ESPN’s FPI heavily favors Miami against Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech heads into the matchup against Miami after a much-needed bye week. The Yellow Jackets are missing star quarterback Haynes King and defensive signal-caller LB Kyle Efford. The Yellow Jackets’ offense has struggled the past few weeks without King. His presence and playing ability are very important in this match. Defensively, the Yellow Jacket defense had its best outing of the season against Virginia Tech, holding the explosive offense to 21 points and just seven points in the second half. The Yellow Jackets enter the game with a 5-4 record.

This is probably one of the least talked about rivalries in the ACC. The series was tied 14-14. Georgia Tech has won three of the last five games against the Hurricanes, all by a single point. In fact, five of the last six matches were decided by a single score.

You may remember the infamous meltdown the Hurricanes had when they had possession of the game but decided to run the football instead of taking a knee and finishing the game. On the next series, QB Haynes King connected with Christian Leary for the game-winning touchdown, sealing the victory.

Miami comes into the game at 9-0 and is one of the best teams in the country. They are rated as the No. 4 team in the country in the first college football playoff rankings. The Hurricanes present a different challenge for the Yellow Jackets this season because they are arguably the most well-rounded offense they have faced. The Hurricanes can run the football as well as throw it. They lead the nation in points (47.4) and yards per game (556.9). Miami has scored 35+ points in every game this season. The Yellow Jackets’ work will be interrupted to slow down their prolific offense.

ESPN FPI gives the Yellow Jackets just a 23% chance of winning the game, and they’re currently trailing by 13 points in the spread. The Yellow Jackets have dropped six spots in the FPI rankings to 43rd since the bye week. Their chances of winning six matches also dropped from 90.3% to 80.7%. There’s no telling how much a win against a top-ranked opponent would do to what the Georgia Tech program has built. They had a signature win at home last year against No. 17 North Carolina and earlier in the season against No. 10 Florida State. The situation will be completely different on Saturday, as Georgia Tech can prove that it can beat the best teams in the country with playoff aspirations.

ESPN uses FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128, but rather to accurately measure games and season outcomes.” “It’s kind of a guess if Vegas published the power rankings they use to determine their own limits, they’d probably be a lot like FPI.”

Additional Links

Georgia Tech Football: Yellow Jackets Announce Jersey Combinations for Saturday Game in Miami

ACC Football: Predictions for Game 11 Each Week

Georgia Tech Basketball: Big Takeaways from Yellow Jackets’ Season Opening Win Over West Georgia