Bangladesh

Fri 8 November 2024 17:38
Last update date: Friday, November 8, 2024 18:37

Fri, 8 November 2024 17:38 Last update date: Fri, 8 November 2024 18:37

Image: Anwar Sohel

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Image: Anwar Sohel

Bangladesh stands on the brink of sweeping state reforms, much of which will involve an overhaul of the electoral system. A government committee was formed to consider all possibilities; Discussions continue with the participation of political parties, experts and ordinary citizens.

While voting in elections may seem simple to many, the number of different electoral systems around the world is a testament to the complex nature of democratically determining the rulers of peoples.

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In Bangladesh and many countries around the world, only two parties dominate the election process — This may not be the most effective method when it comes to a truly representative democracy.

This allows elections to be solely about who gets the most votes. However, if we expect more parties to join a participatory democratic environment, the weaknesses of these simple voting mechanisms begin to emerge.

What happens if there are three candidates and one of them gets 34 percent of the votes and the others get 33 percent? Is it fair that a politician supported by only 34 percent of the public represents everyone?

It is important to look at alternative voting systems to ensure that every vote is effective in deciding who will govern the country. Most of these systems account for the fact that in a pluralistic democratic environment there will be more than two candidates or parties. Some voters have a first choice, a second choice, etc. It takes into account the fact that it can happen and that all these choices have the right to be taken seriously.

This field of study has a name: social choice theory, based on solid mathematical and economic principles. While it is difficult to go into much detail of social choice theory in this article, with sweeping electoral reforms on the cards, let’s look at some common voting systems around the world and see what options the future holds for Bangladesh.

Plural voting or passing the post first

This is the current voting system used in national legislatures in Bangladesh and at least 39 other countries. Accordingly, regardless of the turnout, the candidate with the most votes wins the election, even if the candidate receives less than 50 percent of the votes. Many of the countries using this system are former British colonies, and this system has been used in England since the middle ages.

In first-past-the-post or majority voting, the winner is not always the side with majority support. Photo: Creative Commons

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In first-past-the-post or majority voting, the winner is not always the side with majority support. Photo: Creative Commons

The main criticism of this system is that it leads to the election of candidates even though they are not wanted by the majority of voters. The system also discourages having more than two candidates in an election because candidates with similar ideologies tend to take votes away from each other, leading to the victory of a candidate with an opposing ideology. As a result, countries with this voting system always fall into the trap of becoming a two-party system known as Duverger’s Law.

The likelihood of extreme ideologies coming to power has the potential to increase in this system, as voters are not encouraged to vote for an alternative even if their preferred party is on the sidelines, as accepting an alternative would mean handing victory to the opposition ideology. This is probably why Donald Trump took control of the Republican Party in the United States.

Second round elections (two rounds)

Probably the most famous example of this system used is in the French presidential elections. In this system, in elections where more than two candidates compete, the condition for winning is that the candidate with the most votes receives at least 50 percent of the votes to be declared the winner. If no candidate makes it, the top two candidates from the first round face each other in the second round. Whoever gets the most votes in the second round (inevitably over 50 percent) wins.

Second round voting takes place in two rounds, with the top two winners of the first round facing each other in the second round. Voters are free to change their votes from one round to the next.

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Second round voting takes place in two rounds, with the top two winners of the first round facing each other in the second round. Voters are free to change their votes from one round to the next.

The advantage of this system is that whoever wins the election wins with majority support. But the real criticism is that when it comes down to just two candidates from a wide range of candidates, voters may still have to vote for someone they dislike and be forced to choose the lesser of two evils. This is especially likely if the first round is close and all candidates receive similar percentages of votes. Another criticism is that holding two large-scale elections is cost prohibitive and risks creating instability and law and order problems in the time between two rounds.

Ranked choice voting (instant runoff, conditional voting, single transferable vote)

This system adopts the idea of ​​runoff voting and attempts to summarize the entire process in a single election. Rather than simply voting for a preferred candidate, voters rank their preferences. For example, if there are five candidates in an election, the voter can list these five candidates in order of preference on the ballot. In some systems, voters are free to rank as many candidates as they wish, while in more advanced variations, such as Sri Lanka’s conditional voting system, voters can rank only three options.

In general, if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes in the first preference, the candidate who received the fewest votes in the first preference is eliminated and the votes of the voters who chose this candidate are transferred to their respective second preferences. This process continues until a candidate receives 50 percent of the votes.

In instant runoff voting, this process is repeated until a winner is found.

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In instant runoff voting, this process is repeated until a winner is found.

However, there are many variations of ranked-choice voting, and most of them vary in their counting methods. For example, in a conditional voting system, all but the top two candidates are eliminated in the first count, and the votes of the eliminated candidates are divided among the top two candidates based on their ranking in those ballots.

An example of ranked-choice voting from the 2016 Australian election. Photo: Creative Commons

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An example of ranked-choice voting from the 2016 Australian election. Photo: Creative Commons

The overall advantage of ranked choice voting is that it allows voters to vote for the candidate they want, regardless of whether they think that candidate can win. Because the following choices have significant initial weight in a ranked-choice voting system, voters have a greater say in who will represent them and who will not. Some criticisms include voter confusion, as well as the notion that, in some specific cases, candidates doing worse in the election by receiving fewer first-preference votes may benefit them as long as they can receive a higher number of second-preference votes. is likely to lose.

proportional representation

This method of voting has gained some traction recently as suggested by some experts (like the late Chief Election Commissioner and renowned economist Rehman Sobhan) and even Jamaat-e-Islami. While most political parties supported this proposal, the BNP called it “unreasonable”.

In this system, political parties publish lists of candidates in order of preference before the election, determining who they will nominate to the parliament if they have one seat, which one they will nominate if they have two seats, etc. indicates. forward. During elections, voters vote only for the party whose policies and candidates they support. Once the votes are counted, each political party will nominate candidates to the legislature based on the percentage of votes they received nationally.

For example, if in a future Bangladesh election Party A gets 40 percent of the vote, Party B gets 30 percent, Party C gets 20 percent, Party D gets 5 percent, Party E gets 3 percent, and Party F gets 2 percent, these organizations are then allowed to nominate MPs based on their vote share. will be given.

Since the Bangladesh parliament has 300 elected seats, in this hypothetical scenario, Party A would get 120, Party B would get 90, Party C would get 60, Party D would get 15, Party E would get 9, and Party F would get 9 seats. 6 MPs.

This is a voting method widely used in 85 countries around the world, including some developed countries in Europe. Seven countries use a variant of the system called “Mixed-member proportional representation”, which combines elements of first-pass and proportional representation. Some other countries use the “single transferable vote” system, which also includes elements of ranked-choice voting.

Proportional representation makes minority votes more important than in many other systems. Even if a party gets only one percent of the votes, it will still get a few seats in parliament, and in the context of Bangladesh, where one percent of the electorate is over a million, it makes sense for them to be represented in parliament.

This system allows many parties to participate in parliamentary politics, leading to coalition governments. Some have viewed this possibility as a positive, especially for countries like Bangladesh, where we have juggled supermajorities and near-one-party rule for much of our history. Others are of the view that having too many parties in parliament could lead to the government repeatedly losing the support of the legislature, leading to instability, dysfunctional parliaments and chaos among MPs.