Ohio State, a No. 3 seed with a blowout win, returns home Saturday against Purdue. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the match from an expert football model who predicts scores and picks winners.

Ohio State passed a major test by beating Penn State on the road, placing them just 1 point away from an undefeated record and emerging as the #2 team in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, but falling short of the projected #5 seed this week. Oregon likely remains the favorite in the Big Ten.

Purdue is 0-5 in Big Ten play, ranked 119th nationally in scoring offense and hasn’t won a game since its Week 1 opener.

What do the analytical models suggest if the Buckeyes meet the Boilermakers in this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Purdue compare in this Week 11 college football game.

As expected, the models strongly favor the Buckeyes against the Boilermakers this week.

SP+ predicts this Ohio State to beat Purdue by a predicted score of 47 to 5 and will win the game by one Expected margin of 41.6 points.

Model gives Buckeyes great look 100 percent chance definitive victory in the game.

SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread so far with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Ohio State one 37.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel determined the total as follows: 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

No deposit odds have been released for the game, as Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you must:

If you do, you’ll be among the small number of bettors who expect the Boilermakers to keep things a little closer, based on the widespread consensus picks for the game.

Purdue is buying 52 percent Bets to either win the match outright in defeat or, with a much higher probability, keep the final margin in defeat below 38 points.

the other 48 percent Betting project Ohio State will win the game and close the big gap in the process.

Ohio State is ranked #3 nationally plus-25.8 point differential On average against opponents when counting wins and losses this season.

Purdue is at the other extreme, ranked 133rd out of 134 FBS teams. minus-26 point difference per year.

Those margins have shrunk for both teams over the last three games the Buckeyes have played. 3.3 points better Boiler Makers better than their competitors 14 points worse than the competition in this range.

Ohio State had the upper hand at home 33.8 points better more than its competitors at the Horseshoe, while Purdue averaged 21.3 points worse while playing on the road.

Most analytical models predictably favor the Buckeyes over the Boilermakers in this model.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State stands out 99 percent One of the computer’s latest simulations for gaming.

That leaves Purdue as the likely winner in the other race 1 percent from the sims.

How does this translate into a margin of victory?

Ohio State is expected to be 41.2 points better According to the model’s latest prediction, both teams are on the same field more than Purdue in their current composition.

Ohio State is ranked second among Big Ten teams. 92.4 percent chance To qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI’s metrics.

This model predicts the Buckeyes will win 11 games this season.

Purdue remains in last place in the Big Ten 1.3 game win predictions According to the index, in 2024.

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 12:00 Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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