Hurricane Rafael hit Cuba as a major hurricane on Wednesday, and a late-season tropical system has now emerged in the Gulf of Mexico. But now the question is: Where does it go next?

Hurricane RAFAEL Update: LOCATION I PROJECTED PATH

FOX Forecast Center He said what is happening now is a rare event. Rafael remains a Category 2 hurricane as of the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest advisory.

Intensity forecast for Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)

This is the first Category 2 storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico in November since Hurricane Ida in 2009.

Cuba hurricane 2024

Cuba and parts of the Western Caribbean undoubtedly took the brunt of the storm, which brought damaging, hurricane-force winds, flooding rain and a potentially deadly storm surge.

All tropical alerts have been lifted and conditions are expected to gradually improve across the region, but millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast will closely monitor the progress of the hurricane as it slowly moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the latest announcement from the NHC, Rafael is about 200 miles west of Key West, Florida, and moving northwest at 9 mph.

This chart shows the status of Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)

Maximum sustained winds in Rafael reach 105 mph, and winds are expected to weaken as the storm moves across the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.

FOX Forecast Center He said computer forecast models strongly agree that Rafael will quickly turn west and begin its journey toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast cone for Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)

The guiding currents that helped Rafael on its way from the Caribbean to the Gulf will begin to weaken significantly, allowing the hurricane to meander through the center of the Gulf over the weekend and into next week.

Projected path of Hurricane Rafael

FOX Forecast Center He added that there is a growing consensus that Rafael will slowly move towards Texas or Mexico and weaken steadily as it does so.

Spaghetti plans for Hurricane Rafael. (FOX Weather)

However, there is a possibility that Rafael may turn north, but FOX Forecast Center He says that seems less likely.

This is because Rafael will be moving towards a very dry atmosphere and strong upper-level winds. Rafael could easily disperse due to hostile atmospheric conditions.

If Rafael survives until next week, FOX Forecast Center That may be because it moved far enough south in the western Gulf of Mexico to avoid those hostile conditions, he said. In this case, the Mexican coast may be under threat.