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What does Trump’s victory mean for immigration in the UK?
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What does Trump’s victory mean for immigration in the UK?

It will take some time for the world to get used to the reality of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. In the UK, the government is considering the geopolitical consequences of Trump 2.0, in which the guardrails will be removed and the winner will largely have to follow his own radical agenda.

News of Trump’s victory was met with political unease on this side of the pond, but markets on the other hand showed positive signals; The rise of the dollar against foreign currencies and stock markets made gains. Time will tell whether these positive developments are a result of relief from the end of election uncertainty or a sign of confidence in Trump’s economic manifesto.

Trump’s second election will have far-reaching effects on the UK, and not all of them will be good. But one area where businesses can benefit is international talent acquisition, from which we can make a few educated guesses about what will happen next.

First of all, it should be kept in mind that Trump will not move into the White House and come to power until January 20 next year, so there will be no sudden change in policy. Trump is also known as a guy who sometimes says one thing and does another, so some of his campaign promises may not come true. However, it is safe to assume that the immigration agenda will focus on significant reductions and restrictions. He promised mass deportations of approximately 11 million illegal and undocumented workers and an end to illegal immigration.

He also advocates reducing legal immigration and has proposed a merit-based visa system that prioritizes workers with the skills U.S. firms need. He also promised tighter checks and enhanced screenings for some immigrant groups.

Given the crude and combative language often used about immigrants on the campaign trail, and Republicans’ determination to create ‘American jobs for American workers,’ it is hard to imagine that his legal immigration policy will be anything other than a deterrent. In fact, his advisers may use the UK’s relaxed post-Brexit immigration regime as a blueprint for how not to get things done in the US, given that our more liberal regulations after the referendum have contributed to record numbers of overseas workers. If this were to happen in the US, it would be a betrayal of one of the core promises of the Trump campaign.

What this effectively means is that both skilled and unskilled immigrants will find the door to the United States closed or increasingly difficult to get through. A Trump-led administration would likely lead to an increase in visa denials and reduced opportunities for family-based immigration.

The benefit for UK employers is that the world’s most attractive country for international migrants, according to the Migration Policy Institute, remains largely off-limits. This will create a large pool of talent to settle in other countries. We still have serious skills shortages in many sectors in the UK, and despite the increased restrictions on visas introduced earlier this year, UK visas will be seen as a much more accessible option for many people and the UK will be seen as a more welcoming country. Unlike the United States under Trump’s presidency.

Indeed, reports in the Indian press, for example, highlight the projected challenges skilled workers will face in the coming years if they wish to move to America. This is good news for UK employers, who will have a better choice of trained and skilled talent with the biggest player in the game.

Another possible benefit to British recruiters is less certain but may still prove significant. This is migration from both undocumented workers deported from or asked to leave the United States and domestic workers.

In reality, most undocumented workers who face deportation will not meet the criteria for a UK skilled worker visa; Many work in occupations from which the British salary threshold would exclude them. For example, many work in unskilled jobs in the construction and agricultural sectors or as maids and house cleaners, and the average wage for a skilled worker visa is below the £38,700 threshold. However, some will meet the required criteria under our points-based system and be qualified for a skilled role, and these individuals will be looking for English-speaking countries to move to.

Another possible outcome could be a small but significant exodus of U.S. domestic workers, especially young college and undergraduate professional women who feel disenfranchised by the direction the U.S. is taking. The country is undoubtedly deeply divided along ideological lines, and while there is no evidence yet that this demographic is looking to emigrate in significant numbers, people took to social media to ‘joke’ about moving in the hours after Trump’s victory was declared. Searches for other countries and ‘moving to Canada’ have increased.

In this context, it will be interesting to see whether high-potential individual (HPI) visa uptake will increase, given that younger, highly educated Americans will feel particularly alienated by the election results. The visa route is only open to graduates from the Department of Internal Affairs’ list of top global universities, most of which are located in the United States. Applicants do not need to be U.S. citizens, they just need to be a graduate of one of the listed institutions. The HPI visa is an unsponsored work visa, meaning applicants do not need to have a job to apply, and although it is temporary, it is possible to switch to another visa at a later time once the applicant has entered the UK on this visa. Skilled worker sponsorship visa, if eligible.

Whether any discontent felt after the election will translate into real action remains to be seen, but it is certain that anyone in the disenfranchised demographic who was seriously considering emigrating before the election will now have even more reason to leave. So smart recruiters looking abroad to fill high-skilled positions could do worse than looking to the U.S. for potential candidates and highly motivated, skilled workers.

Yash Dubal is director and founder of AY & J Solicitors