Former President Donald Trump He is projected to be the next president of the United States, according to ABC News projections released at 5:31 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, Nov. 6. As of 6 a.m. Eastern, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were also projected to be in the lead. Trump and the once and future president are also ahead in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. At this point, the most likely final outcome appears to be a 312-226 Trump victory. It also seems likely that Trump will win the national popular vote for president, although it will take some time for all the votes to be counted.

We’ll be doing a lot of analysis over the next few months to figure out exactly how 538 Trump won. After all, he may become the second Republican presidential candidate since 1992 to win the national popular vote. This warrants not only introspection from Democrats but also a lot of quality analysis. And Trump’s sweep of swing states — while not surprising — also represents a new high for his electoral success.

But for now, here are three brief possible explanations for Trump’s victory tonight. These insights primarily draw on exit polling, which is flawed for a variety of reasons but remains, for now, the best available source of data on why and how different types of people vote. (We reserve the right to revisit these results when more data becomes available.)

Inflation

For all the noise about the various issues, statements, rallies, and rhetoric during this election, the economy is a unique situation that provides the most obvious draw for Trump. Voters rank the cost of living in America as one of their top concerns, and it is undoubtedly one of the most pressing, salient, and visible issues in their lives. It’s not a stretch of the imagination to imagine that no matter how negatively they view Trump, they would punish the incumbent party for it; In fact, that’s what voters have been doing all over the world for the last three years.

According to the exit poll, 35 percent of voters nationwide rated the “state of democracy” as the most important factor in their vote. 81 percent of those people voted for Harris, and only 17 percent voted for Trump. But economics was the next most influential issue. Among those voters, Trump led 79 percent to 20 percent. Ultimately, abortion did not occur at rates as high as Democrats had hoped; only 14 percent rated this as their biggest concern.

It is possible that inflation is contributing to the widening gap between high-income voters and low-income voters. According to the exit poll, Democrats increased their vote share of voters living in households earning more than $100,000 a year by 9 points. Republicans won by 12 points among lower-earning households, which make up about 60 percent of the electorate.

Racial polarization

Early exit poll estimates also show Democrats’ support declining among nonwhite voters and rising among white voters (especially those with a college education). Exit polling shows Trump winning white voters by 12 percentage points; the rate was 55 percent to Harris’ 43 percent. Compared to the 2020 exit poll, that’s a 5-point improvement for Democrats.

Democrats fared best among college-educated white voters compared to 2020. They voted for Harris, 54 percent to 44 percent, shifting 7 points to the left. Meanwhile, non-white, non-college-educated voters gave Trump 13 points.

Republicans’ gains with nonwhites were especially significant among Hispanic and Latino voters. Democrats’ vote margin with the group fell 26 points, to just 53 percent to 45 percent, according to the exit poll. Trump’s vote share with Latinos looks set to be his best since George W. Bush’s 44 percent in 2004. Latino men advanced 33 points toward Trump, one of his biggest moves.

Democratic participation was weak

In addition to economic volatility and worsening margins in their base, it appears Democratic turnout has also suffered. Nearly 137 million votes have been counted so far for the 2024 presidential race. Final turnout estimates hover around 152 million votes. That would be a drop from the 158 million who voted in 2020, equivalent to about 61 percent of the electorate. This represents a decrease from 66 percent in 2020.

The decline in turnout is also likely to disproportionately affect Democrats. While we won’t know for sure until we review the records about who actually voted (states will release them in the next few months), the decline in turnout is now larger in the most Democratic counties in battleground states. This is something that will hurt Harris in a unique way; If you’re a Democrat, low turnout in the suburbs is bad, of course, but it’s not as bad as missing the mark in Philadelphia or Milwaukee, where you’re counting on a lot of votes to carry you to victory.

Over the next few months we’ll be able to dig into more data on why Trump won (again). The basic explanation was that this was always going to be a tough election for Harris to win. He has failed both to convince undecided voters and to get out where it matters most. Democrats will need to do a lot of soul-searching to figure out how to recover.