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    • What might influence the choice? 6 things that will determine the race
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    What might influence the choice? 6 things that will determine the race

    Harry Posted on

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    WASHINGTON – After months of deciphering numerous surveysvolatile betting markets and historical gender gapThe 2024 elections are right around the corner, and we’ll soon find out whether he’ll be a Democrat or not. Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will be the next president.

    More than 80 million people have voted early, and about the same number are expected to go to the polls in person on Tuesday, making it a very close election in seven likely battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia). , Nevada and Arizona.

    Postal ballots counted late, especially in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.It means we may not know the winner on election night.

    this one Mad rush to Election Day Between Trump, who was impeached twice, and Trump, who was impeached four times A lawsuit was filed against the former presidentAnd Harrisvice president, who only launched his campaign in late July President Joe Biden left school. The race saw two assassination attempts targeting Trump.

    Here are six things that could go a long way in deciding whether Harris or Trump wins on Election Day.

    How big will the gender gap be?

    The 2024 race long ago turned into a “boys vs. girls” election, and polls show Harris making a solid showing better among women and Trump among men.

    Harris is running to become the country’s first female president. USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll The survey, conducted between October 14-18, showed that Harris was ahead with 53%-36% among female voters across the country, while Trump was ahead with approximately the same margin (53%-37%) with male voters.

    The gender dynamic could give Harris an advantage, as women have historically voted at slightly higher rates than men. Roe v. By emphasizing the post-Wade abortion fight, the Harris campaign focused on winning over large numbers of female voters to help propel Harris to victory.

    Democrats encouraged by early voting The participation rate among women outpaced men nationally by nearly 9 percentage points; That’s roughly the same margin as the 2020 election, when Biden defeated Trump.

    Will Trump’s sister vote count?

    To overcome Harris’ dominance over female voters, Trump an often overlooked voting bloc: Young men without a college degree.

    Trump’s appearances at UFC fights and college football games. His podcast interviews Joe Rogan and internet celebrities and influencers Adin Ross, Theo Von and Logan Paul. The launch of a Trump-branded sneaker. Trump embracing wrestling icon Hulk Hogan.

    More: Sibling vote: Trump and Harris duel over what it means to be a man in America

    All of this activity, and the shameful “matchmaking” on display on the campaign trail, was aimed at a segment of the electorate that the Trump campaign believed could win the former president the election: male voters under 50 who were undecided ahead of the election, making up about 11% of voters in battleground states.

    Many of these voters are considered low-information, low-propensity voters who do not follow every move in the presidential election closely and do not always vote. Trump needs them to show up.

    Silver uptick for Harris?

    Democrats haven’t singled out seniors as a voting bloc since Al Gore’s presidential election in 2000, but polls suggest Harris may do so this year thanks to older women.

    Some have called this a potential “silver surge” and “granny gap” for Harris.

    In an October USA TODAY/University of Suffolk poll, Harris narrowly led Trump nationally, 46 percent to 44 percent of voters 65 and older. AARP national survey As of late September, Harris had a 54%-42% lead over Trump among senior women. AARP found that rising costs and protecting Social Security and Medicare are among older women’s top priorities. But for many people, so is abortion. — perhaps remembering an America where they had more reproductive rights than their daughters and grandchildren.

    More: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris takes the lead over Donald Trump as Election Day approaches. Here’s how

    Stunning Des Moines Record/Mediacom The poll, released over the weekend, showed Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in red Iowa, driven in part by the extraordinary margin among older women; This could propel Harris to victory if played out on Midwestern battlefields.

    The poll found Harris leading older women in Iowa by a wide 63% to 28% margin and older men by a 47% to 45% margin. The poll also found Harris leading among independent female voters, 57% to 29%.

    Will Trump rip off Black and Latino voters?

    Polls show the Trump campaign is making progress in peeling back some Black and Latino voters — two Democratic strongholds — by targeting young male voters in both groups.

    If Trump increases his share of the black vote by even a small amount in urban centers like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, Harris will need to make up for it based on Democrats’ recent gains among college-educated white voters in the suburbs to win. .

    In 2020, Black voters supported Biden over Trump 92%-8%, according to exit polls, while Latino voters supported Biden 65%-32%. October USA TODAY/Suffolk poll It found Harris leading Black voters by a narrower margin of 72%-17%. A national survey of Latino voters from Florida International University last week found: Harris leads 57%-33% with Latino votersregained some of the ground it had lost.

    According to a Marist College poll released last week, Harris leads Trump with 84%-16% among Black voters in Pennsylvania and 75%-25% in Michigan; both are underperforming Biden’s margins. Marist found that in Wisconsin, Harris received support from 63% of nonwhites and Biden from 73%.

    But polls show Harris with a narrow lead in all three states because she’s polling better than Biden with white voters: 51-47% for Trump with white voters in Pennsylvania, 51-48% in Michigan, and 50% in Wisconsin. -48 ahead. . He argues that Harris can compensate for the shift among non-white voters by widening the gap with white voters in the suburbs.

    The reaction of Puerto Ricans?

    Some Puerto Rican voters rally around Harris after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe At the recent Trump rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden, Puerto Rico was referred to as a “floating island of garbage.”

    Could the backlash be strong enough to shake up elections in Pennsylvania?

    Pennsylvania has a growing population More than 1 million Hispanic voters (615,000 of whom are expected to vote) are expected to turn out, including a large group of Puerto Rican voters in Allentown, the state’s third-largest city.

    Harris leads 64% to 30% of Latino voters in Pennsylvania and 67% to 27% of Puerto Rican voters in the state, according to a poll released Sunday by Noticias Univision and YouGov. The poll also found that most Latinos in Pennsylvania, including Puerto Ricans, were offended by Hinchliffe’s joke — 67% of respondents, including 71% of Puerto Ricans, said the joke was “more racist than humorous” .

    Harris campaigned in Allentown on Monday as part of a day spent traveling through Pennsylvania, where she received 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground state. With a close result expected in Pennsylvania, Puerto Ricans in the state could play a big role.

    Will the ‘blue wall’ take shape or divide?

    As Harris and Trump try to get the 270 delegate votes needed to win, the first place to look is the so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

    The three Rust Belt states have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one presidential candidate besting all three. After Trump flipped three “blue wall” states to the Republican column in 2016, Biden won each one in 2020.

    If Harris carries all three “blue wall” states on Tuesday, then she will likely win the election even if she loses four Sun Belt battleground states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. This assumes Harris wins Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, where she votes ahead, and all other states where she is heavily favored to win. Harris would win the Electoral College 270-268 in this scenario.

    But a victory for Trump in any of the “blue wall” states — especially Pennsylvania, the top prize — would open up multiple paths for him to reach 270, matching that win with victories in the Sun Belt states he usually holds. received stronger votes.

    For example, if Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses Wisconsin and Michigan, he would win the Electoral College 271-267 if he wins all three Sun Belt states.

    Under this scenario, Harris would need to make up for her loss in Pennsylvania by carrying at least two Sun Belt states. This means Trump could lose either Georgia or North Carolina, which both have 16 delegate votes, and still win.

    Reach Joey Garrison on X (formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison)

    Harry
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