The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than just knowing the sport we compete in to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from our previous efforts; the latter will be the main focus of this weekly written article. Game Theory methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the Millionaire Maker, the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings. The same principles of Game Theory, which can be explained most simply as the development of decision-making processes given our own skills and knowledge, assumptions and rules about the field based on the cumulative skills and knowledge of other people playing the same game. The structure of the game will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the old squad-building techniques used by much of the field. Approaching improvement with these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful lineups and help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns in the weeks to come. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning lineup, draw relevant lessons for future use, and finish by looking at the main list ahead.

Winning Squad

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Lessons Learned

Close to Ideal Delivery

DraftKings user chindog619 ​​came closer to the optimal roster than we’ve seen this season, assembling a near-perfect player and salary combination to maximize scoring. Lists like Week 9 tend to reinforce bad habits by distorting our perception of what it takes to win these tournaments, specifically introducing a recency bias towards accepting too much variance. This game we play is more about how we manage and manipulate differences than it is about selecting nine players who exactly maximize points against salary. I’ll reiterate something we’ve talked about before in this series of articles: In the 15 years of DFS’s existence, there has never been an optimal roster to win a tournament.

Two Players Who Stand Out Last Week Were Winners

Last week, we spent some time in this column highlighting players who were underpriced for their roles and matchups; Both Courtland Sutton and De’Von Achane were noted in this article. If we use the same process to reverse engineer the plays on Chindog619’s roster, we see that similar production profiles exist at almost every point on the roster. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was playing in a game without DK Metcalf, Mike Gesicki had a deeper aDOT and Ja’Marr Chase with Tee Higgins out this season (now a four-game sample). has more production than and Quentin Johnston returns in 2017. The active roster has the two highest pass rates over expectation games this season. The price tag for all five of these actors was too low for their expected roles and production profiles.

Looking Forward

Playing Totals Drop and Pricing Remains Tight

Last week we were gifted a lot of value games that were too cheap for the expected role and play environment, and this, combined with the high average game total, has forced a situation where increased points are likely required to win major tournaments. This also showed up in Week 9’s main rankings, with her season-high scoring Milly Maker at a strong 262.10 points on DraftKings. However, Week 10 presents a very different puzzle as pricing remains tight, fewer value options are available, and average game totals are down; This will likely push the points needed to win tournaments aggressively towards 190-195 points after the Week. 9’s offensive burst. This is an important study because it will fundamentally change our approach to roster construction. The disclaimer here is that value may emerge throughout the week, similar to what we saw in Week 9. But as things stand now, it’s unlikely we’ll need the same level of offensive output to win majors next major. slate

Reaching 25+ DK Points Will Be Difficult

The byproduct of declining game totals and a less offensive environment ripe for fantasy goodness is that elite fantasy points will likely be harder to come by in Week 10. This increases the importance of players having this level of production in their range of results. To keep things simple and based on the setup of some of the games on the list, we can be pretty sure that one (or most) of those points came from the Eagles and 49ers; This means the skill position players in these offenses must acquire. Pay more attention to this page.

Actors Too Cheap for Expected Roles

Jalen Tolbert He should serve as the primary wide receiver for the Cowboys, a team ready to play without quarterback Dak Prescott and possibly alpha wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.

Najee Harris He went for over 100 yards on the ground in three consecutive games and had a Commander defense that allowed the third-most yards before contact per attempt (2.67).

Baker Mayfield He has a salary multiplier of 4x his Week 10 salary in five of his nine games on DraftKings this season.

Cade Otto His three games without Mike Evans saw final goal totals of 10, 10 and 11. With Chris Godwin out for the season, Otton is set to see another game against the 49ers with an elite base of players.

Mason Tipton He hit a season-high nine goals last time out, when the Saints were without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Olave took a major hit in the team’s Week 9 loss against the Panthers and is in the league’s concussion protocol after being treated in the hospital.