A marquee SEC football rivalry begins under the lights as No. 14 LSU welcomes No. 11 Alabama as both teams try to avoid a costly loss. Let’s check the latest predictions for the game from an analytical model that simulates the games.

Alabama improved to 3-2 in SEC play after defeating Missouri, but it’s still playing by a razor-thin margin as playoff selection approaches and can’t afford any mistakes.

Likewise for LSU, which fell to 3-1 in the conference following its loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago and has two losses overall entering this crucial rivalry matchup.

As we look forward to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer forecasting model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the models give the Crimson Tide a big advantage over the Tigers this time around.

Alabama is a big favorite to win the game with a majority lead 69.8 percent from computer simulations of matches.

This leaves LSU as the likely winner in the remaining race 30.2 percent of models.

Overall, the Crimson Tide came out ahead in 13,960 of the index’s game-related calculations, while the Tigers edged Bama in another 6,040 predictions.

But these numbers only represent a win-lose dynamic. What do the models translate into for the margin of victory among these SEC rivals?

Alabama is expected to be 7.6 points better More than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest prediction.

If so, this should be enough to cover the spread in the game.

This is because Alabama 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at: 58.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And that set the moneyline odds for Alabama -146 and for LSU +122 To win for sure.

So far, a slim majority of bettors expect the Crimson Tide to topple the Tigers, based on the latest consensus picks for the game.

Alabama gets 52 percent Bets to win the game and close the tight spot gap.

the other 48 percent The odds expect LSU to either win the game outright with a loss or keep the score under shot in the event of a loss.

Alabama ranks fourth among SEC teams. 55 percent chance To qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI’s metrics.

This model predicts a total win for the Crimson Tide 9.5 games this season.

As for LSU, the index makes a prediction 20.4 percent chance Good enough for sixth place in the SEC heading into this weekend to make the playoffs.

And computers predict Tigers win total 8.4 games In ’24.

The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer forecasting models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

The rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analysis including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and the team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked by projected points margin per game against an average team on a neutral field, rather than by ability as in other rankings.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre-Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. ole miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. colorado
22. Kansas State
23. pittsburgh
24. vanderbilt
25. louisville

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 18:30 Central
TV: ABC network

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Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

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