• Polls will close in a few hours in the 2024 presidential elections.
• Kamala Harris and Donald Trump fought over Pennsylvania, but both candidates have more than one way to go.
• That’s why we watch.

Election Day 2024 came. Billions of dollars have been spent to push voters to support certain candidates and causes.

Vice President Kamala Harris turns the tables presidential race with late entry. Pre-election polls showed her race against former President Donald Trump could be the closest race in history. The margins are so narrow that a potential voting error could cause an unexpected implosion.

More than 78 million Americans voted early in person or by mail. Final turnout may be down slightly from the historic target set in 2020, but pre-election Gallup polling shows voters enthusiasm is above 2008 levels.

This isn’t just control of the White House. Congress is also up for grabs. Thanks to important races taking place on favorable grounds, Republicans are favored to retake the Senate. Designing the house is more difficult. Republicans could win a few seats, or Democrats could flip the chamber with an equally narrow majority. Just like in 2018, the presidential race is dominated by New York and California, which are barely competitive.

Here’s what we watched.

How will Trump or Harris win the White House?

Harris’s easiest path to victory remains the one that was once President Biden’s last resort: holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. the so-called “Blue Wall” and “Blue Dot”. Barring any unexpected setbacks, Harris would win the Electoral College, 270 to 268.

Trump’s easiest path to victory is through Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. Winning Pennsylvania would likely allow Trump to retake the White House by holding on to North Carolina and pushing back on Georgia. In that scenario, he could even withstand the blow of losing Electoral College votes in Nebraska, which pre-election polls show is very likely.

While much focus is rightfully on Pennsylvania, Trump has spent a significant amount of time in the race. Last days in North CarolinaAlthough only two Democrats, Presidents Obama and Carter, have won the Tar Heel state since 1976.

These are important districts to watch.

Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro recently called this county in the Philadelphia metro area “the most swinging of all swing counties of all swing states.” Hillary Clinton won Bucks by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2016 and lost both the state and the White House. President Biden won by just over 17,000 votes on his way to a roughly 80,000-vote margin on his home turf four years ago. If Trump wants to take back Pennsylvania, being successful here is crucial.

Waukesha County, Wisconsin: This suburban Milwaukee district, once the traditional base of the GOP, has moved closer to suburbs similar to those of Democrats nationwide under Trump. Trump routed Clinton in 2016, but four years later his margin narrowed to just over 7 points as he lost the state to Biden by nearly 21,000 votes.

Maricopa County, Arizona: Phoenix, home of the nation’s fastest-growing county in 2020, edged Democrats by just over 2 points. President Biden won the state by just 10,000 votes. In contrast, then-Gov. Doug Ducey, a popular Republican, won the district by almost 14 points two years ago.

Here’s what early exit polls can tell us:

Exit polls will determine who begins voting in the early evening after the embargo is lifted at 5 p.m. Eastern Time, but specific data on who might win a state will be withheld until polls close in that district.

Although exit polls provide valuable data, especially about demographics, they are often misleading and cannot predict the ultimate winner.

Mark Blumenthal, a contractor at YouGov and former head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, told Business Insider he’ll be interested in how the vote is broken down by gender and race, especially given speculation that Democrats are losing ground among Black and Latino voters.

But in general, he warns against conducting too many exit polls on election night. “As a way of trying to see who’s going to win, between the time they start being released (usually 5pm Eastern tomorrow) and the time we get the final count, my advice is to ignore them,” Blumenthal said. he said. “Ignore them completely. Go for a walk. Take a yoga class, watch something on Netflix, because they’re not designed to tell us who’s going to win the presidential election.”

Republicans are favored to regain control of the Senate.

Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to hang on to this open Senate seat that her fellow Democrats have held for 20 years. Former Congressman Mike Rogers, a onetime Trump critic, hopes the former president can push him to the top. Rogers and his allies focused on Slotkin’s support for the White House’s fuel efficiency standards, which would not mandate electric vehicle production but would likely cause the auto industry to produce more EVs. Polling before the election: Slotin is up nearly 3 points, according to RealClearPolitics’ average

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has survived past challenges in the former swing state that now tilts Republican. His opponent, Cleveland Businessman Bernie Moreno, hit Brown hard on immigration. The Ohio Senate race is the most expensive non-presidential race ever, according to AdImpact. Pre-election poll: Moreno is up less than 1 point over RealClearPolitics’ average.

Montana: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester faces an even tougher challenge in Montana, which Trump trailed by more than 16 points in 2020. Republicans have worked hard to elevate this situation. Tim Sheehya wealthy aviation executive, although his bruising primary expectations did not materialize. Like other Republican candidates, Sheehy did everything possible to tie Harris to Tester. Pre-election poll: Sheehy is up 6.5 points over RealClearPolitics’ average.

Home is much closer.

Arizona District 1: Representative David SchweikertA Republican, he has represented Scottsdale and the surrounding area in Congress for almost 14 years. Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly easily won the district, one of the most educated districts still held by a Republican. His opponent, former State Rep. Amish Shah, has emphasized his centrist record and hopes Trump’s unpopularity will sink Schweikert.

New York 19th: Rep. Marc Molinaro was one of four Republicans who flipped a Democratic-held seat in the 2018 midterm elections in New York; This was a crucial margin for the GOP to take back the chamber. Democrats hope attorney and policy analyst Josh Riley can win a rematch in two years with help from top-seeded Harris. More than $35 million was spent on the race, making it the most expensive House contest in the country.

California 22nd: Rep. David Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans who represent the district that President Biden won in 2020. Valadao is also one of two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Former State Rep. Rudy Salas, like many Democrats in key races, hopes to win in a rematch after coming up short two years ago.