Germany’s birth rate has reached a new record low. According to the German Institute for Economic Research (Ifo), it currently stands 1.35 children Number of children per woman compared to 1.58 children per woman in 2021.

The decline is even more pronounced in eastern Germany compared to the western states of Germany.

According to the German Federal Statistical Office, approximately 392,000 children were born in Germany between January and July 2024.

Compared to the same period in 2023, this meant 3% fewer babies.

These figures reinforce the downward trend that already characterized 2022 and 2023, when 693,000 newborns were registered. A year ago, in 2021, 795,500 children were born in Germany.

In other words, in 2023, more than every eight beds in the neonatal ward remained vacant compared to 2021.

Record low followed by peak years

Until 2016, statisticians were reporting that the number of newborns in Germany was significantly lower. There were just over 682,000 newborns in 2013. In 2015, the number was slightly higher, with 737,000 babies.

But in the peak years between 2016 and 2021, more than nine newborns per 1,000 people were recorded.

Meanwhile, that figure dropped to just 8.2; This is even lower than 10 and 15 years ago.

Significant fluctuations in a country’s newborn rate always result in long-term changes. First of all, there are the number of quotas required for child care and school education. In the long term, it can affect both the workforce and the stable financing of pension funds.

After all, low birth rate is also a factor that creates the need for migration.

East-West divide

According to Ifo, the number of births in Germany’s eastern states is falling faster than in the west of the country.

The number of newborns across Germany dropped by almost 13% from 2021 to 2023. However, in the eastern states of Germany, this decrease was up to 17.5%.

This is in line with the statistically proven trend that more young women than young men move from eastern Germany to western Germany for better career options or for personal reasons.

Still, the decline in the total number of newborns is no surprise. As a result, the number of women of reproductive age is decreasing across the country.

However, this is not enough to justify the seriousness of the trend. Statistics emphasize that the decrease in the number of newborns is also due to the low birth rate per woman.

“Childbearing behavior, expressed in the birth rate, has changed greatly in the last three years,” Joachim Ragnitz, deputy director of Ifo’s Dresden branch, told DW.

“The coronavirus crisis, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the loss of income due to high inflation have caused many young families to postpone having children for now,” he said.

However, he added that these reasons are assumptions and cannot be proven statistically.

The decision to have children in Germany is ultimately a personal matter.

“Several factors are important in this decision, including the weighing of costs and benefits, as well as the question of one’s own life plan,” Ragnitz said. he said.

However, there is no denying the fact that there is an expense factor of approximately 180,000 euros (US$194,000) during the first 18 years of a child’s life.

That’s why couples or families are faced with a decision “in the very long term,” Ragnitz said.

In his view, politicians are tasked with changing the basic calculus by “increasing benefits or reducing costs.”

ongoing debate

Increasing child care subsidies or reducing costs for families in Germany has been a matter of debate for decades.

In many cases, there is an ongoing debate about institutional support, for example through comprehensive childcare services and individual support in the form of a better work-life balance and higher child benefits.

There are calculations that such benefits would cost taxpayers up to €200 billion a year. According to the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, these include child benefits, tax-free child benefits and education investments.

“There is probably a need for fundamental social transformation in every case,” Ragnitz said. “Nowadays there are hotels that advertise that children are not allowed. Behind this is basically the image of disruptive children.”

According to him, this is an indication of the level at which society as a whole needs to ask itself how it approaches children and families and what it is ready to do for them, materially and spiritually.

According to Ragnitz, regardless of whether politicians contribute to a different mentality and different figures through specific family policy measures or whether society as a whole opens up to a fundamental change in attitudes, this will not quickly reverse the trend.

“Both approaches can only play a role in the long term, not in the short term, because no matter what action you take, you can only achieve change in the very long term,” he said.

This article was originally written in German.