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    • Here’s Who’s Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls – As Nate Silver, 538 Publications’ Final Predictions
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    Here’s Who’s Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls – As Nate Silver, 538 Publications’ Final Predictions

    Harry Posted on

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    Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of former President Donald Trump by the narrowest of margins in both polling guru Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s final presidential predictions shortly after midnight Tuesday, though both predictions predicted the White House race would be on Election Day. showed that they remained statistically equal, like both candidates survey numbers bogged down in key swing situations.

    Basic Information

    Silver released final prediction After running 80,000 simulations of the race based on polling data, he found that Harris’s chance of winning was 50.015% compared to Trump’s 49.985% (a real tie). early november.

    FiveThirtyEight also launched His final prediction for the winner of the presidential race gives Harris the slimmest edge, with about a 50% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 49%.

    Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s predictions estimate the likelihood of both candidates winning and are separate from polls, which predict how many votes each candidate will receive; but many national and state polls also remain essentially equal.

    Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 48 percent in the last election HarrisX/Forbes pollThis report, which was taken between Wednesday and Friday and has a one-point margin of error, showed an increase of 50%-48% in one period. Ipsos survey It also came out on Monday.

    The widely followed Times/Siena poll, released late last month, showed that support for Harris had waned since the paper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump. , stated that the results were “not encouraging” for Harris. As Democrats, Harris won the popular vote in the last election even though they lost the White House.

    Trump ahead 48 percent to 46 percent CNBC research The proportion of registered voters was released on October 24 (margin of error 3.1) and he was ahead by a margin of 47 percent to 45 percent. Wall Street Magazine Registered voter poll on October 23 (margin of error 2.5) – a shift in Trump’s favor since August. Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

    Harris has erased Trump’s lead over Biden since July 21, when she announced her candidacy, but Harris’s advantage has diminished in the last two months, reaching 3.7 points at the end of August, according to FiveThirtyEight. weighted voting average

    Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Are Often Wrong

    And there’s a lot of speculation this year about how wrong they were and who it might benefit. read all about it in this story.

    Big Number

    1.2 points. This is Harris’ average lead over Trump on FiveThirtyEight voting average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics voting average shows Harris ahead by 0.1 point and Nate Silver leads Harris by one point Silver Bulletin forecast.

    How Is Harris Performing Against Trump in Swing States?

    Harris leads Michigan, Wisconsin And Pennsylvaniaand Trump is leading North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona And NevadaAccording to FiveThirtyEight’s poll averages. This means that if the voting in every swing state is completely accurate, Harris will win the electoral college; but most of the seven swing states, including critical Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

    Surprising Fact

    A survey from: NBC News The report, released Sept. 29, found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead has narrowed. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54 percent backing Harris, 40 percent backing Trump and 6 percent unsure who to vote for. Support for Harris is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but remains significantly lower than past leads held by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll. The poll’s margin of error was 3.1 percent.

    How did the debate affect the polls?

    Pre-debate polls find Harris’s polling surge looks steady, including from NPR/PBS/Marist questionnaire The count of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%; This rate decreased compared to the three point difference in August. Most post-debate polls show a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but that’s not enough to significantly impact the horse race between the two. New York Times/Siena questionnaire 67 percent of likely voters released on September 19 found that a majority of voters in every demographic viewed Harris’ debate performance on September 10 favorably; Overall, 67 percent said Harris did a good job, while 40 percent said the same for Trump. Harris gained 52-46% among likely voters and 51-47% among registered voters. ABC News/Ipsos poll It was taken a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, and probably didn’t show much change from his six-point lead with voters. end of august And early august ABC/Ipsos polls—although 63% of Americans He said Harris won argument.

    Key Background

    Biden dropping out of school He called it quits on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. HE approved immediately He and Harris announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around him, and 99% of Democratic delegates voted to officially nominate him in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced he had chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’s rise in the polls has been combined with the increase in Democrats’ enthusiasm for the election. almost doubled Since Harris joined the race, 85% has risen from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has held steady at 71%, according to Monmouth University. questionnaire It was released on August 14.

    Further Reading

    New HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Trump Leads Harris by 2 Points – But 12% Still Decide (Forbes)

    2024 Election Swing State Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Rising in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

    Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 1 Point in Latest Poll – While Harris Struggles with Latinos (Forbes)

    Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads in Latest Poll – But Undecided Voters May Sway Results (Forbes)

    Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 3 Points in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Narrowly Leads in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Critical Swing State in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads by 3 Points in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads by 3 Points in Latest Poll (Forbes)

    Harry
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