There are many reasons for Democrats to be optimistic about Election Day. Seventy-seven percent of Democratic voters to say They are excited about going to the polls to vote. Kamala Harris– just a big jump 55% when in march Joe Biden was still at the top of the list and 50% in 2016When Hillary Clinton ran against Donald Trump. There are positive signs in hotly contested Pennsylvania. new Democratic women, a group defined as those who did not vote in the 2020 election, appear to make up a significant portion of the population early voting.

It should come as no surprise that the data looks rosy for Harris right now: Her volunteer army is 353 field offices It has been clearly mobilized across the country, such as: Elon MuskUndercompensated, exploited, driven by U-haul volunteers not. It also offers a vision that focuses on: real needs While Trump offers his quintessentially strange (though significantly darker and slightly sillier) mix, voters racism, misogynyand complaint.

Even though the polls have been excruciatingly tight for months, pollsters and pundits may still be underestimating what could be the biggest factor in 2024: loss Roe It was traumatic for women, especially those who were alive before 1973 and found themselves granted bodily autonomy but denied their daughters and grandchildren. Supreme Court justice Samuel Alito may have overlooked the potential damage from a rollover, I defend this “women are not deprived of electoral or political power,” but female voters perceived her removal from office as encouragement. 2022 midterms And 2023 elections. Them already falling behind In early voting, her male counterparts voted by a significant margin. And if my theory proves correct on Tuesday night, this will be yet another example of women, especially older women, being disregarded and disregarded.

Consider the latest findings Ann Selzer, Iowa’s leading pollster, having correctly predicted the state’s winner in every presidential election since 2008. Last weekend, he launched The latest pre-election poll shows Harris leading Trump in the right-leaning state, 47% to 44%. The data stunned experts who never imagined the vice president would have a chance in the state Joe Biden loss by eight points. But Selzer noticed something they couldn’t: Post-Roe voting bloc

Trump was leading Biden by 18 points In a poll conducted in June in Iowa, Trump’s lead dropped to 4 points in September. Two major events occurred between the polls: One was the emergence of Harris, whose launch went smoothly and raised more than a billion dollars; The other major event was Iowa’s six-week abortion ban. be effective In late July. Abortion bans do not only affect abortion; they affect standard prenatal care, IVFAnd number of doctors providing obstetrics and gynecology services in a state.

Another factor that pundits and pollsters probably haven’t fully taken into account is Harris’ bipartisan appeal. Many liberals didn’t like the way Harris campaigned and held town hall meetings with Republicans Liz Cheney. But there’s a good chance that older women, even older Republican women, will be pushed across party lines by such efforts. By creating a permission structure for GOP opposition, Harris signaled to voters that Trump was not a regular Republican and that it was okay for them to vote for a Democratic candidate they might not normally support. Harris’s turn to Republican women is only possible if she’s truly like that a very strong candidate; a leader who can stick to a solid political thesis without alienating those who do not fully agree. He made his closing speech about pragmatism and compromise, a message that appealed to more centrist voters.

We don’t know what’s going to happen in the next 24 to 48 hours, but I think we’re going to look back on this election cycle and see that there’s a woman of color once again. greatly underestimated. We will also consider this race as one where female voters are under-appreciated. Harris was amazing; It developed into a unique style of oratory. I think Harris has reproduced similar magic Barack Obama2008 coalition. But her coalition is broader than ever because it includes Republican women who know they could lose even more of their rights if they vote for Trump.