Through eight games, BYU is 8-0 and 5-0 in Big 12 play. As the calendar turns to November, the Cougars have everything to play for. Tuesday is a big day for BYU; The College Football Playoff committee will announce the first College Football Playoff rankings for the 2024 season. When the rankings are released, BYU will be in the CFP rankings for the first time since 2021. Today we’re looking at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the College Football Playoff seedings.

Let’s address the elephant in the room; Let’s call this the “Gary Barta effect.” Many BYU fans have bad memories of the College Football Playoff committee, and for good reason. It was 2020, when BYU was 9-0 and ranked No. 2020. 8 in the AP poll. The first CFP ranking is out and the Cougars have fallen to the all-no level. 14. The committee hated BYU’s strong schedule that season, and BYU was penalized in the standings as a result. Gary Barta, the committee’s leader that season, was asked about BYU’s drop in the rankings. Barta said the committee “respected” BYU but condemned them for their strong program. No matter what BYU does that season, the committee will not place them in the top 12. The “Gary Barta effect” is the idea that no matter what BYU does right, the committee will not respect BYU’s resume.

Because of 2020, most BYU fans forget that in 2021, the committee viewed BYU more favorably than the AP poll. The Cougars were seeded No. 1. He was ranked No. 17 in the AP poll at the time, and the committee ranked the Cougars two spots ahead at No. 2. 15. Why was the committee more positive towards BYU that season? Because BYU had quality wins against P5 teams.

This year, BYU’s resume is much better than it was in its initial CFP rankings. The “Gary Barta effect” is still possible, but not a foregone conclusion like it was in 2020.

The worst-case scenario for BYU isn’t as bad as it could have been before last Saturday’s games. Texas A&M, Clemson, Iowa State and Pitt lost on Saturday. These four teams posed a threat to BYU in the rankings. Since they all lost, BYU’s floor is much higher than it was a week ago.

BYU was ranked No. 2 in the AP’s poll on Sunday. 9 and became the consensus top 10 team. With only five undefeated teams remaining, there’s only so far BYU can fall. This is good news for BYU.

Historically the committee has always favored P4/P5 teams. This is the first time BYU has the advantage of being in a P4 conference. But it’s unclear how this year’s committee will evaluate the Big 12 compared to the Big Ten and SEC. How will the committee evaluate undefeated BYU compared to, say, one-loss Tennessee? There remains something to see.

Still, who are the candidates who will edge BYU according to the AP poll? Just behind BYU in the AP poll are Notre Dame (10), Alabama (11), Boise State (12), SMU (13), LSU (14), Texas A&M (15), Ole Miss (16) and Iowa State . (17).

Notre Dame is a candidate, of course. Although the Fighting Irish suffered one of the worst defeats in the country at home against NIU. You’re facing a two-loss SEC team behind the Fighting Irish. It’s safe to expect the committee to be biased against the SEC, but in this writer’s opinion it’s unlikely the committee would rank a two-loss SEC team ahead of an undefeated Big 12 team at this point. If they do so, they risk having their regular season results devalued.

Boise State won’t get past BYU. The committee has never been kind to the G5 teams. What about SMU? BYU won head-to-head against SMU.

In a worst-case scenario, we think BYU would still be ranked in the top 10 or very close to it. Maybe Notre Dame can get past the Cougars, and maybe Alabama beating Georgia can blow out the Crimson Tide, but even in the worst-case scenario, we think BYU would be a top-10 pick.

Worst Case Scenario: No. 11

In this writer’s opinion, BYU has more positives than positives when compared to the AP poll. From where? Because when viewed side by side, BYU’s resume stacks up well against the teams immediately ahead of them in the AP poll.

Let’s start with Indiana. The Hoosiers prevailed and the committee can reward them for that, but Indiana’s resume is abysmal. Indiana’s strength of schedule is ranked 103rd, and they haven’t played a single team that received votes in the AP poll. It wouldn’t be too surprising if BYU got the better of Indiana.

What about one-loss teams Texas and Penn State? Their only losses have come against elite teams, but they lack signature wins. Texas’ top win is Vanderbilt and Penn State has no top 25 wins. Could the best win for the Nittany Lions be against Illinois? Or maybe Wisconsin?

What about Tennessee? The Vols have a good win against Alabama, but a win against Alabama in 2024 doesn’t mean the same thing. Tennessee lost to a very mediocre Arkansas team early in the season. Maybe the committee punished them for this loss.

If this committee can rid itself of the SEC and Big Ten bias that plagues the AP polls (which is probably asking too much), there’s a world in which BYU could rank ahead of one or two of these one-loss teams.

Last year the committee really valued the undefeated P5 teams. Last season there were five undefeated P5 teams in the top seed, and these were the top five teams in the initial CFP rankings. The committee has shown in the past that it values ​​zero in the loss column, at least to some extent.

Miami has been well ahead of BYU all season long. Is this guaranteed? The Hurricanes don’t have a ranked win and have had too many close calls to count. BYU has two better wins than Miami. That may seem far-fetched based on the AP poll, but it’s not impossible since the committee’s rankings must eliminate early season bias.

We believe that in the best-case scenario, BYU can knock on the door of the top five.

Best Case Scenario: No. 6