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Here’s How Third-Party Candidates Could Shape the Trump-Harris Race, From Jill Stein to RFK Jr.
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Here’s How Third-Party Candidates Could Shape the Trump-Harris Race, From Jill Stein to RFK Jr.

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Third-party candidates are on the ballot in crucial swing states, and while the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains nearly tied, a few votes for smaller candidates could make the difference.

Basic Information

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (which has suspended its campaign), the Green Party’s Jill Stein, the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West are on the ballot in at least some of the seven swing states poised to decide the election. vote.

Oliver is on the ballot in every swing state, Stein and West are on the ballot in most states, and Kennedy is only on the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin, although he tried to remove his name after supporting Trump.

Third-party candidates are likely to receive a very small share of the vote, but in such a tight election they can matter: Minor candidates received 3% to 4% of the vote. The Economist/YouGov And Times/Siena Polls conducted last week show a larger vote share than the one percentage point difference between Trump and Harris. CNN/SSRS poll Michigan found 6% of voters backed minor candidates, with Harris leading by five points.

Democrats are especially worried about third-party candidates: Stein and West I’m running left Harris, and most of the time, seems more likely to win voters from her than from Trump; final Times/Siena National polling in October shows Trump ahead 47% to Harris’ 46% when third parties are included, but a tie (48%-48%) if people are forced to say which way they’ll lean.

RFK Jr.’s role on the remaining battlefields is unclear: Before leaving, he obligation for both campaigns, but polls suggest he might as well to reduce More from Trump now with his ongoing candidacy – Fox News poll for example Released on October 30 It showed Harris leading Trump 48%-46% in Michigan when voters are allowed to choose Kennedy as an option (Kennedy at 3%), but when voters fail to choose Kennedy that figure shifts to 49%-49% .

Which Swing States Have Third-Party Candidates and How Do These Candidates Vote?

  • Arizona: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein holds 2% of the vote, Oliver 1% Times/Siena The survey was published on November 3. In the same poll, Trump is ahead by four points.
  • Michigan: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percent, Stein has 2 percent, West has less than 1 percent, and Oliver has 1 percent. Times/Siena questionnaire. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (45% to 45%).
  • Wisconsin: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has less than 1 percent, West has less than half a percent, and Oliver has less than 1 percent. Times/Siena questionnaire. In the same poll, Harris was leading Trump by three points.
  • Georgia: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has less than 1 percent, Oliver has 2 percent. Times/Siena questionnaire. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (46% to 46%).
  • Nevada: Oliver is on the ballot; According to 2 percent of the votes Times/Siena questionnaire. In the same poll, Harris is three points ahead of Trump.
  • North Carolina: Stein, Oliver and West are on the ballot. Stein has less than 1 percent of the vote, West has less than half a percentage point, and Oliver has less than 1 percent. Times/Siena questionnaire. In the same poll, Harris is three points ahead of Trump.
  • Pennsylvania: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has about 1% of the vote, while Oliver has less than 1%. Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris and Trump are tied at 47-47%.

Important Quote

“Third parties appear to be gaining little traction this year and will likely play a very limited role, but in an extremely close election in which a few thousand votes in three or four states could determine the outcome, a third party is unlikely to win,” Bruce Schulman, a historian and professor at Boston University, told Forbes. “Even a draw of a tenth of 1 percent can make a difference,” he told , via email.

Key Background

Third party candidates have almost no chance of winning the election, given the funding and popularity required to make an impact on voters and popular votes. Historically, no third-party candidate has won a presidential race, and they often underperform in the polls. Pew Research Center notes. Even so, many of these candidates have put in the money, the effort, and the line. lawsuits will be included (or removed from the ballot paper). Candidates are often accused of spoilers; third-party candidates often reject this view and argue that they offer voters an ideological choice not offered by any of the major parties. Spoiler claims from past years include 2016 candidates Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson. 1% and 3% votes respectively. Some claim Stein hurt Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign: Green Party candidate wins tens of thousands The number of votes in Wisconsin is greater than the margin that won Trump the presidency. Frequent nominee Ralph Nader also claimed to be a spoiler Because of the 2000 campaign, when George W. Bush narrowly beat Al Gore by a few points in Florida. The late billionaire Ross Perot ran for president in 1992 against Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican Party President George HW Bush. HE landed With approximately 18.9% of the popular vote, it was the closest a third-party candidate had come to winning in American history and was believed to hurt Bush.

What is a protest vote?

In such a tight race, some voters see voting for a third party as a means of protesting the election or showing their dissatisfaction with the two main candidates.

What to Pay Attention to?

Stein has emerged as the preferred candidate of some Muslim and Arab American voters unhappy with President Joe Biden’s support for Israel in its occupation of Gaza. His support is particularly strong in Michigan (home to a large Arab American population), Arizona and Wisconsin. Reuters reportscites a survey by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, an advocacy organization. CAIR said 40 percent of Muslim voters in Michigan would vote for Stein, 18 percent for Trump and 12 percent for Harris.