new York
CNN
—

Inflation’s fingerprints are all over the 2024 race for the White House.

Skyrocketing prices at gas stations, supermarkets and just about everywhere else have spooked Americans in the early days President Joe Biden’s term in office.

Fair or not, inflation almost immediately caused voters to turn to Bidenomics and tarnished his chances of re-election.

Now the inflation rate is almost back to normal; miraculously, without recession and millions of job losses HE many guessed. The economy’s growth rate remains relatively high and the unemployment rate remains historically low.

soft landing or not, voters be disappointed. So who can blame them?

Life is much more expensive than it was a few years ago. Prices have not returned to pre-Covid levels and probably never will.

For too many people, The American Dream seems unattainable.

It’s not just record house prices, it’s also Mortgage rates remain high equal After an aggressive rate cut From the Federal Reserve. Some lucky first-time buyers arrived at a time when prices were lower and borrowing was very cheap. Many people are from the outside looking in.

Frustration over affordability continues to plague Vice President Kamala Harris, who has repeatedly had to defend the administration’s economic performance.

Harris took the fight against prices one step further most important part of the agenda. He called for increased campaign minimum wagespeeding up tax credits for parents and building more houses.

Even as Harris delivered her closing argument from the historically significant Ellipse with the White House in the background, she prioritized affordability.

“Our biggest challenge now is to reduce costs, which were rising before the pandemic and are still very high. I understand,” Harris said in her landmark speech last week.

Harris also understands that economic anxiety fueled by inflation has helped boost the popularity of her rival, former President Donald Trump.

Trump likes to remind voters that inflation is not a problem when he is in the White House.

And he has a point: inflation rate It has never exceeded 3 percent under Trump; That’s a far cry from the four-decade high of 9.1 percent under Biden.

Of course, Trump did not confront the supply chain nightmare that caused prices to rise. And when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil prices had not risen above $100 per barrel; This energy crisis had increased natural gas prices to record levels.

Whatever the reason, prices are clearly much higher today.

The typical U.S. household is spending $1,120 more per month buying the same goods and services as in January 2021, when Biden was president, according to Moody’s Analytics.

But it is also true that workers today benefit from real wage increases.

Income is consistently growing faster than inflation. This means paychecks exceed prices; This is a trend that will allow consumers to catch up and feel better.

The typical household earns $1,192 more per month than in January 2021, slightly outpacing inflation, according to Moody’s.

Still, that doesn’t feel good enough.

Many Americans work extremely hard and deserve these pay raises. It can be extremely frustrating to have fatter paychecks swallowed up by higher rent and larger car insurance payments.

Trump promised to shake things up and get the cost of living under control.

“I’m going to end inflation,” Trump told a roaring crowd of supporters in his battleground state of North Carolina on Wednesday. “I’m going to bring back this thing called the American Dream.”

Trump has proposed imposing tariffs on all $3 trillion of U.S. imports, including high 60 percent tariffs on China. His plan calls for mass deportations as part of an unprecedented crackdown on immigrants. And Trump argued that the president should at least voice his opinion on the Federal Reserve’s policy on interest rates.

Trump’s calls for strong action and sweeping change resonated with many voters. In many surveys Voters say they trust Trump over Harris on economy.

And yet one of the great ironies is that mainstream economists not only reject Trump’s promise to solve inflation, but warn that his fixes will make the situation worse.

They fear tariffs would raise prices for consumers and deportation of millions of undocumented workers would lead to labor shortages.

In fact, some argue that Trump’s policy proposals are highly inflationary, perhaps The most inflationary crisis of a leading presidential candidate’s lifetime..

More than two-thirds (68%) of economists Research by The Wall Street Journal They say prices will be higher under Trump than under Harris.

“Just like Mexico didn’t pay for the wall in his first term, China won’t pay Trump for tariffs if he’s elected for a second term. You will,” economists wrote in a paper open letter It has gathered more than 300 signatories in recent days.

But if Trump wins, it will be largely due to inflation.