CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCSC) – The National Weather Service is monitoring a system it is calling Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 and expects to strengthen into Tropial Storm Rafael Sunday night.

At 5 p.m. Sunday, the disturbance was concentrated near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 77.1 West, approximately 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.

The system is moving toward the northeast at approximately 7 mph. A turn to the north and then the northwest is expected over the next few days.

On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph, with higher gusts possible. This system is expected to develop into a tropical depression Sunday night, with steady strengthening expected.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hurricane is 1004 mb or 29.65 inches.

Tropical Storm Patty rotates in the North Atlantic

As of 3 p.m. Sunday, the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 24.3 West, approximately 175 miles east-southeast of Lajes Air Base in the Azores.

The storm is moving eastward at approximately 16 mph, and an easterly to east-northeast motion is expected over the next few days.

In line with the forecast, Patty’s center is expected to move away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are around 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Patty could reach a post-tropical low late Sunday or Sunday night.

Winds of up to 40 miles per hour extend up to 80 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb or 29.30 inches.

It is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, of precipitation across the Azores by Sunday, with local amounts of up to 4 inches.

Patty may strengthen into a post-tropical cyclone late Sunday and gradually weaken by early next week.

1 more area is being monitored in the Caribbean

Meanwhile, forecasters are monitoring a third area of ​​low pressure located east of the southeastern Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms occur over a wide area, along with strong winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic.

This system may slowly develop over the next few days as it moves westward into the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At the end of this period, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea late Monday, ending its chances of development.

Regardless of the development, locally heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

The chance of the second system developing next week is only 10%.

After Rafael, the remaining names on the 2024 Atlantic storm season list are Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.

Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.

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