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Here’s Who’s Leading the 2024 Trump-Harris Presidential Race in Nevada?

Harry November 4, 2024

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Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in three recent polls of likely voters in the crucial state of Nevada, where declining support among Latino voters is in danger of hurting Harris’ chances of winning the state next week.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Las Vegas on September 29.

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Basic Information

Harris leads by three points in New York Times/Siena, 49%-46% questionnaire Percentage of Nevada voters likely to be released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

In the Emerson poll released Friday, Harris has a one-point lead at 48%-47% (margin of error 3.6) and a 51%-47% lead overall. questionnaire The list of likely voters released this week by the Cooperative Election Study (933 respondents), a collection of multiple nationwide surveys sponsored by universities.

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48-47% on CNN/SSRS questionnaire Published on Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads Bloomberg/Morning Consult among likely voters 48.8% to 48.3% (essentially tied) questionnaire Published October 23 (margin of error 5 points), trails Trump 47%-46% AARP research The proportion of likely voters was announced on October 22 (margin of error 4), Wall Street Magazine The October 11 poll (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

Trump has an average lead of 0.7 points in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted rating voting average.

Nevada, the smallest swing state with just six electoral votes, has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, with President Joe Biden beating Trump by 2.4 points in 2020.

Big Number

56%. According to a study conducted in September, the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016 was 49% in 2024. NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

The support that Latino voters will give Harris will be very important for her success in Arizona and Nevada, which are dominated by Hispanics and Latinos. about 30% percentage of the population and polls show he is losing support among key demographic groups. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada 61% to 35% over Trump in 2020, according to CNN exit pollsHarris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to October USA Today/University of Suffolk. questionnaire According to the survey, which revealed that 53 percent of Latino male voters aged 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40 percent support Harris, Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men; In the state, 53 percent of Latino men aged 35-49 support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of concerns among Latino voters in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll. 37 percent of respondents said inflation was their biggest concern, while 17 percent said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign is appealing to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month to challenge Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz. He made a last-ditch appeal with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including. He’s up against Trump ally Karl Lake for the Senate in Arizona. His campaign said the tour would include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men.