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    • Hurricane Center Invest 97L update, road track and spaghetti models
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    Hurricane Center Invest 97L update, road track and spaghetti models

    Harry Posted on

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    A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is expected to be sent to the Western Caribbean on Sunday to obtain a Tropical Weather Outlook in the early morning hours, forecasters said. Invest 97L dataAn event that has been watched for days.

    National Hurricane Center forecasters believe: There is a high probability of a storm within the next 48 hours.

    NHC forecasters say There is an 80% chance Invest 97L will develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next two days. Further east, a system located near Puerto Rico is moving eastward and may generate storms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed by Invest 97L.

    AccuWeather forecasters said Sunday: tropical storm possible It will be developed by Monday.

    Subtropical Storm Patty was rapidly moving eastward Sunday toward the Azores, which was not under a Tropical Storm Warning. Patty’s center is expected to move near the southeastern Azores today.

    There is no threat of landing on the US mainland today and Tornado strikes in November remain rare.

    “The most reliable guides indicate that the western flank of this steering high pressure will still extend across the Gulf, with a possible storm continuing to move westward or northwestward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” said Ryan Truchalat, forecaster and owner of Weathertiger. USA TODAY Network.

    “A minority of model ensemble members have a faster, stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm near the Yucatan or Cuba could theoretically turn northeast toward Florida toward the end of next week or the following weekend.”

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    The next named storms are Rafael and Sara.

    Will it rain when I vote? Here’s Florida’s weather forecast for Election Day

    Here are the details about what happened there as of 5 a.m. on November 3:

    Where is Subtropical Storm Patty? Is a hurricane headed for Florida?

    Location: 37.5N, 25.5W, approximately 125 miles southeast of Lajes Air Base, Azores

    Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph

    Current movement: East at 18 mph

    Minimum central pressure: 990MB

    The center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 North and longitude 25.5 West. The storm is moving eastward at approximately 18 mph, and an easterly to east-northeast motion is expected over the next few days.

    In line with the forecast, the center of Patty is expected to move towards the southeastern Azores within the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds are around 50 mph, with higher gusts possible. Weakening is expected over the next few days, with Patty expected to reach a post-tropical low later today or early Monday.

    Winds of up to 40 mph extend outward for up to 175 mph, mainly to the south and southwest of the center.

    Hazards affecting the land:

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in parts of the Azores today.

    PRECIPITATION: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the Azores by Sunday.

    SURFING: The waves created by Patty will affect the Azores in the next few days. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and disrupt existing conditions.

    Tropical development conditions near Florida. Will Invest 97L become Tropical Storm Rafael?

    caribbean waters warm enough for tropical developmentEven this late in the season. But forecasters say they are watching for wind die-offs or disruptive gusts to determine what will happen next. AccuWeather is calling for a tropical storm to form by Monday night.

    “The approaching tropical storm is expected to make a northeastward turn over Jamaica and Cuba next week, bringing heavy showers and gusty winds to those islands. It is not unlikely that it will develop into a hurricane in the Caribbean before reaching Jamaica or Cuba,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.

    There are several options on the table for the path of the approaching tropical storm.

    “The future track will depend on the downward movement of the jet stream over 1,000 miles away over the United States next week,” AccuWeather Chief Live Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

    “If this jet stream decline moves far enough eastward, it will tend to pick up the tropical feature and possibly pull it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida,” Rayno explained. “But if the decline of the jet stream is delayed westward, the tropical feature could move into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far west as Louisiana or Texas. It is also likely to continue westward, decreasing in southern Mexico.”

    Invest 97L Caribbean status

    Invest 97L in the Southwest Caribbean Sea: Sporadic showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of ​​low pressure.

    This system is expected to develop gradually, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves generally northward and northwestward over the Central and Western Caribbean Sea.

    Regardless of the development, locally heavy rains are possible in parts of the contiguous land areas of the Western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba.

    Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for parts of the region later today or tonight. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.

    • Chance of formation over 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
    • Lineup chance over 7 days: high, 90 percent.

    What else is out there and how likely are they to get stronger?

    Near the Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure several hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas continues to produce patchy showers and thunderstorms as well as gusty winds over adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic.

    Slow development of this system is possible during the day as it moves westward into the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be incorporated into Invest 97L over the Caribbean Sea late Monday, ending any chance of development.

    • Formation chance over 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
    • Formation chance over 7 days: low, 10 percent.

    Who is likely to be affected?

    The forecaster says 1-2 inches of rain is expected from northern Jamaica towards Cuba. Heavier rains of 4-8 inches could occur near the storm’s track over western Cuba and central Jamaica, with an AccuWeather high of 14 inches over the highest terrain.

    “This rain could lead to flash flooding, landslides and difficult travel in parts of Jamaica and Cuba,” Reppert said.

    As the tropical storm moves north and gains strength, wind gusts will increase, with wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph predicted.

    Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

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    When is Atlantic hurricane season?

    Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?

    Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms passing near your city

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to make sure you’re always connected to the news. And call for us special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

    Harry
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