Thunderstorms are gathering in the Southern Caribbean, north of the Colombian coast. The National Hurricane Center labeled it Invest 97L. It is currently part of a large low pressure system, but is expected to develop into an organized tropical depression and eventually Tropical Storm Rafael within the next few days.

By tomorrow the system will be near Jamaica. The consensus of various computer forecasts is that there will be a tropical depression by then. At the end of the day, it could be Rafael.

Flow around the strong high-pressure system off the southeast coast will push the system northwest, possibly toward the western tip of Cuba. According to the current schedule, depression or possibly Rafael will move into the Gulf on Wednesday.

The air will be trapped between the low pressure of the Caribbean system and the high pressure over the Atlantic. The result will be high winds and hazardous ocean conditions along Florida’s east coast, especially the southern half of the Florida Peninsula, at least Monday through Wednesday. Strong winds may also affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida on Wednesday, depending on the likely track of Rafael.

Flooding rain is expected on the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico. Rich tropical moisture is expected to spread from south to north across the Florida Peninsula starting Tuesday. Likely—Raphael moisture is forecast to cover much of the state at least through Thursday.

There is disagreement among computer forecast models about how strong Rafael will be when it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts range from a low-intensity tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane. Remember that the system is not yet developed, so we should not focus on any predictions. However, the atmospheric environment appears to be quite conducive for development. So a healthy tropical storm is at least a reasonable possibility.

Possibly once Rafael reaches the Gulf, steering currents may weaken, meaning the system will move more slowly. Predictions for slow-moving systems are always extra doubtful, and this prediction has not yet been established.

Reasonable routes for the weekend range west to Mexico or north from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. But wherever it goes, the best available evidence is that it will weaken significantly before it reaches shore.

(National Hurricane Center)

Upper-level hostile winds are blowing across the Northern Gulf and Southeast and will continue unless long-range computer forecasts prove completely wrong. All long-range forecasts see the system weakening significantly before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

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