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    • Here’s Who’s Winning in the Key Swing State
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    Here’s Who’s Winning in the Key Swing State

    Harry Posted on

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    Vice President Kamala Harris is running to become the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years; Most polls show him and former President Donald Trump in close competition; Trump has a slight advantage in three new polls released. This week Harris is ahead, and in the other two weeks Harris is ahead.

    Basic Information

    Harris leads New York Times/Siena 48%-46% questionnaire Trump leads 49%-47% on Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points) Morning Consultation The survey was also released on Sunday; Harris is up 48-47% among likely voters on CNN/SSRS questionnaire Release on Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points).

    Trump has a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage over Harris among likely voters, with 4 percent choosing another candidate. Fox News The poll was released Wednesday, but in a two-way matchup its lead narrows to one point (50%-49%), within a three-point margin of error.

    Trump also leads 50-48% among likely voters in North Carolina in the Cooperative Election Study questionnaire Last week, a major national survey (2,308 respondents) sponsored by universities and conducted by YouGov was published.

    Trump leads by the same margin of likely voters in both Marist polls, 50 percent to 48 percent questionnaire and an Emerson questionnaire earlier this month and was up 49.6%-48.5% according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult questionnaire It was released on October 23, and is all within the poll’s margins of error (3.1 points for Emerson, 3.6 for Marist, and 4 points for Bloomberg).

    Cook Political Report While he wrote that the state “looks more competitive than ever” since Harris entered the race, Cook’s latest poll, released earlier this month, showed Harris and Trump tied, pushing North Carolina from “weak Republican” to “failure” in late August. dragged. That’s after Harris held a one-point lead there in August.

    Surprising Fact

    If Harris wins the state, she will have an almost 90% chance of winning the election, according to political analyst Nate Silver. Voter Power IndexThis found that if Trump won North Carolina, he would have a greater than 80% chance of winning the electoral college.

    Key Background

    North Carolina has voted for only one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008. North Carolina’s shift to the left has been largely attributed to a 5.6% population increase, particularly among potential voters who generally support Democrats (including the highly educated). There has been an increase since 2020 near the “research triangle” area of ​​Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill. Brookings Institution. This region is also home to three major research universities (Duke University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the University of North Carolina) that are driving related industries in high technology and life sciences, making it the tenth fastest-growing region in the country. According to Brookings. The overall percentage of North Carolinians with a bachelor’s degree (a Democratic-leaning demographic) has also increased by 1.4 million since 1990. to work by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    What to Pay Attention to?

    Whether scandals involving GOP gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson will hurt Trump’s chances in North Carolina. Trump endorses Robinson before CNN report He reveals a series of racist and derogatory comments he allegedly made on a pornographic website chat forum before entering politics, including referring to himself as a “Black Nazi”. Polls conducted after the September 19 news show that Democratic candidate Josh Stein recently increased his point lead over Robinson to 19 points. Emerson College research. A CNN/SSRS poll released on September 27 also found Robinson trailing Stein by 17 points, a tie between Trump and Harris; This suggests that Robinson’s scandals have not affected Trump’s standing there. Historically, the death of down-ballot candidates rarely brings down the affiliated party’s presidential candidate. CNN notes.

    Big Number

    16. This is the number of electoral college votes for North Carolina received after the 2020 census. The state became the eighth-most vote-getting state in the country, along with Georgia.

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    Despite voters’ increasingly Democratic leanings, Republicans hold supermajorities in both houses of the legislature, giving them the power to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes.

    Additional Reading

    2024 Election Shifting State Polls: Harris Leads or Ties with Trump in All Battleground States, Latest Poll Findings (Forbes)

    Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads by 6 Points in Latest Likely Voter Poll (Forbes)

    Harry
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