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Why the Main X Factor of Victory May Be on the Sidelines
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Why the Main X Factor of Victory May Be on the Sidelines

The 1-7 Carolina Panthers will host the 2-6 New Orleans Saints this afternoon in a crushing matchup between two crushing teams. New Orleans holds a 32-28 all-time series lead among these teams and has won 12 of the last 16 games, including a 47-10 win on opening weekend. This also includes a 15-14 record at Carolina, where the Saints have won five of their last seven trips.

A quick look at their recent offensive struggles might lead to the conclusion that the Saints will need to rely on their defense to break their six-game losing streak. Against a Carolina offense that ranked 29th or worse in points scored, total yards, passing production and third down percentage, this makes sense. It can also be a dangerous assumption.

New Orleans enters Week 9 with a woeful defense. The Saints rank 32nd in total yards allowed, 28th against both the pass and run, last in average per rush and among the fewest sacks in the league. Perhaps most inexcusable, the defense was relatively healthy until the last few weeks. Now the Saints go into this game without three of their top four cornerbacks.

Yes, the Panthers have a terrible offense. This is also a Saints defense that allowed a 100-yard receiving game like JuJu Smith-Schuster, nearly 200 yards of rushing to Sean Tucker, almost 600 yards of rushing against Tampa Bay, 225 yards of rushing against Denver, and they were roasted. The first two wins by a Kansas City team without a running back.

Believe it or not, New Orleans may have to beat Carolina on offense. It’s a unit that started to get healthy last week with the return of Chris Olave, Taysom Hill and two offensive linemen. This week, quarterback Derek Carr also returned after a three-game injury break. However, the Saints lost WR Bub Means along with Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams in last week’s loss.

However, we could see a more open New Orleans offense with their playmaker down the stretch. It can come down to play calling and game plan design. This means New Orleans offensive coaches could be just as important to a potential win as the players on the field.

New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak before a game against the Tennessee Titans

New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak before a game against the Tennessee Titans / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Saints fans were ready to elect first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak as president after his unit exploded for 91 points and 811 yards in the first two games. In the six weeks since, the offense has averaged just 13.2 points and 291 yards per game.

Kubiak’s hands were tied to a point. In addition to Carr, the Saints had to make do with being without an extraordinarily versatile weapon, three offensive line starters and two primary backups, running back depth, and both missing starters for a week. But Kubiak’s game plans and play calls also raised some doubts.

This was especially evident last week against the Chargers. New Orleans made the right decision by giving rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler his third straight starter. It was also abundantly clear that the Saints had absolutely no trust or faith in Rattler or his supporting cast. That being the case, one has to wonder why they didn’t start Jake Haener or a more proven Taysom Hill behind center.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a pass against the Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a pass against the Carolina Panthers / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Having Carr back in the squad will make a huge contribution. With the inexperienced Rattler on the roster, Kubiak will likely have more confidence in calling some plays that may be buried in his playbook.

Additionally, Carr’s experience will also be useful for audio broadcasts and hot reads against blitz or complex news.

The Saints will still be without their best defender like Rashid Shaheed and their best blocker like C Erik McCoy. Even with guards Cesar Ruiz and Lucas Patrick down, the offensive line had a terrible performance against the Chargers. If the Saints want to accomplish anything offensively, that needs to change drastically.

Other than Olave, no other player on the roster made plays for their quarterback. Background depth of field is also a big issue. Kamara took a hit, but Miller and Williams aren’t available to spell him out. As a result, we’ll see most of Hill’s snaps coming out of the backfield.

New Orleans Saints winger Chris Olave (12) catches a deep ball against the Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints winger Chris Olave (12) catches a deep ball against the Carolina Panthers / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Establishing Kamara will be our first job. Not only is he the best player on the field, but more importantly, Kubiak’s offense is based on ball handling and balance. A good running game not only slows down the opponent’s pass rush, but also sets up play action and potential big plays.

New Orleans needs more from its tight ends, too. Juwan Johnson has put up better numbers in recent weeks, catching 21 passes for 168 yards in the last five games. For Carr, he will need to be consistently productive, which will open up opportunities for other players on offense.

It would be extremely nice to have someone other than Olave play. This will probably be the first time we will see newly signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling in a Saints jersey. Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson and Equanimeous St. Brown combined for just 23 catches and 187 yards. It’s difficult for any quarterback to be successful when receivers aren’t opening up.

New Orleans Saints wide receiver running back Alvin Kamara (41) against Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn (8).

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) against Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn (8) in the open field / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Good coaches maximize the best talents of their players. Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Taysom Hill will be big parts of this afternoon’s game plan. Kubiak’s task will be to find different ways to make all three effective against a Panthers defense that will definitely focus on three quarterbacks.

Movement, action play, using creative formations and moving their best players around the field. These are things we’ve seen New Orleans have great success with early on, but little success in recent weeks. Additionally, designing plays for other complementary pieces could stall the Panthers and even make room for anticipated weapons.

Klint Kubiak hasn’t played anywhere near a full deck in almost two months. He’s holding back his quarterback today, making bona fide threats in Kamara, Olave and Hill, and has four of his five offensive line starters on day one. It’s still not an ideal situation. Still, the pressure is on Kubiak and Carr to be effective offensively.

Considering the New Orleans defense has been playing with a short-handed secondary for much of the year and today, relying on this unit is a big gamble. It may take Kubiak, Carr, Kamara and still a short-handed offense to end the Saints’ longest losing streak in 20 years.