China’s Yiwu has the world’s largest wholesale market, where business thrives as traders look for cheap items to stock their shelves. However, political analysts are also closely following a phenomenon they call the “Yiwu Index”. According to the concept, a US presidency The candidate’s chances of winning the next election increase with the success of copycat sales in Yiwu.

Interestingly, the ‘Yiwu Index’ was predicted Donald Trump’s Victory in 2016 is more accurate than pollsters who were confident that Hillary Clinton would win the election.

According to the Daily Mail, Beijing is likely implementing the theory as it monitors the 2024 elections scheduled for November 5.

What is Yiwu Index?

Political campaigns have always relied heavily on merchandise. While candidates often use their formal attire to raise money, foreign retailers have taken advantage of the increasing divisiveness of American politics to flood the market with replicas of the candidates’ products.

Yiwu is famous for giving early warnings about upcoming presidential elections based on the type of goods it sells. But the market is not perfect, and relying on the index to predict the outcome has flaws.

First, the market is mostly based on wholesale trade and almost never sells products directly to customers.

Retailers may often place bulk orders for certain products in anticipation of a sudden increase in demand during this purchasing period.

Trump supporters are much more likely than supporters of the Vice President to display, wear and purchase products that reflect their political leanings Kamala Harris or any other candidate.

Nevertheless Embers Products made in China outsold products bearing Joe Biden’s name in 2020, but Joe Biden still declared victory.

Yiwu’s prediction for the 2024 US elections

Ahead of the 2024 US elections, Yiwu’s market has seen a sharp increase in demand for camouflage Harris-Walz campaign hats, a good sign for Democrats.

According to The Telegraph, the first batch sold out within 30 minutes of going on sale.

But Zoe Liu Zongyuan of the Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based research institution, warned that the rankings may not be accurate.

make a comparison between someone who has Embers or Harris’ neighbor Zongyuan said Trump voters are more likely to show off their MAGA merchandise.

“Democrats, independent voters, or undecided voters are less likely to spend money to buy these things. “So I would say that the Yiwu Index may no longer be an accurate indicator as voter behavior has changed and the way they show their enthusiasm has changed.”

According to Yiwu theory, Trump’s higher sales relative to his rivals could be a sign of expected voter turnout.

Zongyuan said, “While everyone was saying that Democrats Hilary Clinton would win, the index showed the opposite (in 2016) and emphasized that the people who bought these goods were Americans, diplomats and rally participants, not the Chinese.”